Cuiaba will look to climb out of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A relegation zone on Sunday when they host Atletico Mineiro at Arena Pantanal.
Dourado are winless in the league after dropping a 2-0 decision to last season's champions Flamengo, while Galo are coming off an impressive 4-1 win over Atletico Goianiense, which moved them into fifth place in the table.
Match preview
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The first season in the top flight has been a real learning experience for Cuiaba, which they hope will last longer than one campaign.
Manager Luiz Fernando Iubel has seen his side fight hard in their opening six matches, losing only twice so far, once by a single goal and last week, trailing by one goal until injury time.
They have played in some tight matches so far but have not been able to create many scoring opportunities, failing to fire more than four shots on target in any single match to this point.
When you are being dominated like they are, and you struggle to get many shots on goal, it should come as no surprise that this team have failed to win a top-flight match to this point.
There are still plenty of games to be played, however, and Dourado do have the luxury of playing the fewest matches among Serie A sides, and they are only three points away from clearing the relegation zone, so there is still a lot of time for them to make up some ground.
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Atletico Mineiro put an end to their three-match losing run earlier this week with an impressive offensive display, scoring four goals against a side that had only conceded three times before that match in Atletico Goianiense.
The victory not only moved Cuca's team back into the top five in the league table, but it was also their highest goal tally of this domestic campaign, failing to score more than once in any of their previous seven Brasileiro games before Thursday.
Perhaps the message from the veteran Brazilian manager moving forward should be to put the match out of reach early on, as his side have been defeated twice on injury-time goals and conceded once with 10 minutes remaining in a game that they were leading.
The other troubling thing about some of those results is that they came against beatable sides, drawing Chapecoense, who are second from the bottom, and then losing to Ceara, who are in the bottom half of the table.
As they get set to play two of their next three games against sides near the bottom of the Serie A standings (Cuiaba and America Mineiro), perhaps those previous results will serve as a warning that they cannot take any team in this league for granted.
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Team News
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Dourado will be without their dynamic winger Clayson, who will miss this game due to a yellow card suspension.
Their leading goalscorer Elton is without a goal in his last two league fixtures, while their goalkeeper Walter has two clean sheets.
Left-back Lucas Hernandez has started two of his team's last three matches, and he will be keen to face the team that loaned him out for the season.
Centre-back Nathan Silva is eligible to return for Mineiro, having served his yellow card suspension, and he could provide a significant boost to a side that have allowed six shots on target in two of their last three games.
After back-to-back clean sheets in the middle of June, Everson has conceded in each of his last four Serie A fixtures, but he is still just one shutout away from the league lead this season, currently held by Marcelo Carne of Juventude and Fernando Miguel from Atletico Goianiense.
Cuca made three changes in defence on Thursday, with Mariano, Igor Rabello and Tche Tche, starting alongside their veteran captain Rever.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Ramon, Walber, Paulao, Hernandez; Cafu, Yuri, Correia, Pepe, Junior; Elton
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Rabello, Rever, Guga; Nathan, Jair, Fernandez; Felicio, Hulk, Savio
We say: Cuiaba 1-0 Atletico Mineiro
Dourado have scored the fewest number of goals in the league so far (four) but they have only played one game at home, and they have been able to keep all of their matches close, so the home crowd and their resilience could bring them some good fortune this weekend.
Mineiro have lost two straight matches away from home, and they tend to get complacent and nervous when playing inferior opponents.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.11%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 1-0 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Mineiro in this match.
