After missing an opportunity to pad their lead in fourth place of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, Corinthians will wrap up the month of November with a match against Athletico Paranaense on Sunday from Corinthians Arena.
Timao conceded a goal early and late versus Ceara this week, losing 2-1 as they are just a point above Fortaleza and Bragantino for the final position in the 2022 Copa Libertadores group stage, while the reigning Copa Sudamericana champions drew 0-0 with Sao Paulo on Wednesday in their first match since that cup triumph.
Match preview
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A solid bounce-back campaign for one of the most successful clubs in Brazil hit what they hope will only be a temporary speed bump as they dropped a 2-1 decision in a match that Sylvinho knows they should have won.
They had 65% possession, firing six shots on target but started and finished poorly, conceding the opening goal after only six minutes of play and allowing the winning goal in the 87th minute, just three minutes after Roger Guedes had levelled the game.
For the most part, they look pretty composed and get into a nice rhythm in the majority of their games, but they tend to have some temporary lapses both early and late away from home, conceding a goal within the first 10 or last 10 minutes of play in eight consecutive fixtures.
Fortunately, there have been happier times for them at home, winning seven straight league games as they are unbeaten in their previous 10.
All three of their remaining encounters are against sides below them in the table, with their next two being at home, so they will fancy their chances of assuring a place in the Libertadores next year.
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Following what was a joyous occasion on Sunday, it was perhaps to be expected that El Paranaense were a little off their game in their first match back from winning their second Copa Sudamericana title, drawing 0-0 with Sao Paulo.
Perhaps they were still rejoicing from an impressive victory over Bragantino over the weekend because they looked a step behind Tricolor Paulista throughout their match on Wednesday, failing to fire a single shot on target.
What had to have been a surprise for Alberto Valentim was how out of sync his team were in midweek as they only had 29% of the possession and technically were very inconsistent with their pass accuracy at 64%, despite having the majority of their regular starters in the lineup.
Even though they are currently in 13th place, they will not have to worry about moving up the table as they are already assured of a place in the Copa Libertadores next year, thanks to their triumph last weekend.
It seems as though the players have put the majority of their focus in recent weeks into the other national trophies and not the league, as they are winless in three straight league games and have not scored in their last two.
They still have a chance to capture more silverware this year as they will face Atletico Mineiro in a two-leg affair for the Copa do Brasil next month.
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Team News
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Sylvinho made two changes to his opening lineup against Ceara, as Lucas Piton replaced Fabio Santos on the back end and Luan was inserted into the starting 11 instead of Renato Augusto, while Roni, who scored the only goal in their victory over El Paranaense earlier this year, sat out of their match played earlier this week with a yellow card suspension but is eligible to return for this one.
Willian finally got involved in the scoring for Corinthians as the former Arsenal and Chelsea man set up their equaliser on Thursday, his first assist of the domestic campaign.
Santos only had to make two saves for Athletico this week to collect his second successive clean sheet in all competitions, as he made the same number of saves in their cup victory over Braga.
David Terans, who is among the league leaders in terms of assists with seven, is without a goal involvement since the first leg of their Copa do Brasil tie with Flamengo when he set up the first goal from El Paranaense scored by Pedro Henrique.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Piton, Gil, Victor, Pedro; Gabriel, Vitinho; Guedes, Luan, Willian; Jo
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Hernandez, Heleno, Ze Ivaldo; Abner, Christian, Erick, Marcinho; Terans, Kayzer, Nikao
We say: Corinthians 1-0 Athletico Paranaense
Corinthians have been well composed defensively at home and should see a lot of the ball this weekend against a side who may not be as ambitious as they were the last time these teams faced each other, especially seeing as El Paranaense still have the Copa do Brasil to play for in December.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 63.51%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 14.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.64%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Corinthians in this match.
