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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 27, 2021 at 3am UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Catolica
2 - 0
Atletico Nacional

Aued (9'), Valencia (79')
Valencia (22'), Saavedra (36'), Nunez (52'), Perez (67'), Astaburuaga (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Candelo (45+2'), Rovira (68'), Hernandez (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Universidad Catolica and Atletico Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 50.1%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 27.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawAtletico Nacional
50.1%22.14%27.76%
Both teams to score 64.16%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.4%35.6%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.34%57.66%
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.44%14.56%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.39%42.61%
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.1%24.91%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.48%59.53%
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 50.1%
    Atletico Nacional 27.76%
    Draw 22.14%
Universidad CatolicaDrawAtletico Nacional
2-1 @ 9.36%
1-0 @ 6.99%
2-0 @ 6.73%
3-1 @ 6.01%
3-0 @ 4.32%
3-2 @ 4.18%
4-1 @ 2.9%
4-0 @ 2.08%
4-2 @ 2.01%
5-1 @ 1.12%
4-3 @ 0.93%
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 50.1%
1-1 @ 9.71%
2-2 @ 6.51%
0-0 @ 3.63%
3-3 @ 1.94%
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 22.14%
1-2 @ 6.75%
0-1 @ 5.04%
0-2 @ 3.5%
1-3 @ 3.13%
2-3 @ 3.01%
0-3 @ 1.62%
1-4 @ 1.09%
2-4 @ 1.05%
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 27.76%

How you voted: Catolica vs Atletico Nacional

Universidad Catolica
63.6%
Draw
18.2%
Atletico Nacional
18.2%
11
Head to Head
Apr 23, 2021 1am
Group Stage
Atletico Nacional
2-0
Catolica
Andrade (39'), Duque (45')
Rovira (41')

Zampedri (50'), Huerta (83'), Perlaza (90+1')
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