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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 29, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Hernando Siles

Bolivar
3 - 1
Palestino

Bizama (35' og.), Martinez (46' og.), da Costa (87')
Sagredo (38')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Chamorro (68')
Linares (16'), Suarez (45+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Bolivar and Palestino, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivar

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Last Game: Flamengo 4-0 Bolivar
Thursday, May 16 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Palestino

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Last Game: Millonarios 1-1 Palestino
Wednesday, May 15 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
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We said: Bolivar 2-1 Palestino

 The Bolivians always seem to do just enough to win at home, and that should give them a big confidence boost following the one-sided defeat they suffered on matchday five. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 68.87%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Palestino had a probability of 14.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 3-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.09%), while for a Palestino win it was 1-2 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.

Result
BolivarDrawPalestino
68.87% (0.151 0.15) 16.71% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 14.42% (-0.126 -0.13)
Both teams to score 62.51% (-0.27699999999999 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.77% (-0.184 -0.18)28.23% (0.188 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.97% (-0.229 -0.23)49.03% (0.23200000000001 0.23)
Bolivar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.51% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)7.49% (0.018 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.11% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)26.89% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Palestino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.57% (-0.285 -0.28)32.42% (0.287 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.06% (-0.323 -0.32)68.94% (0.32599999999999 0.33)
Score Analysis
    Bolivar 68.87%
    Palestino 14.42%
    Draw 16.71%
BolivarDrawPalestino
2-1 @ 9.18% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.15% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
3-1 @ 7.94% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.05% (0.06 0.06)
1-0 @ 6.29% (0.065 0.06)
4-1 @ 5.14% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.57% (0.035 0.04)
3-2 @ 4.47% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-2 @ 2.9% (-0.023 -0.02)
5-1 @ 2.67% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 2.37% (0.016 0.02)
5-2 @ 1.5% (-0.014 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.15% (-0.002 -0)
4-3 @ 1.09% (-0.018 -0.02)
6-0 @ 1.02% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.39%
Total : 68.87%
1-1 @ 7.09% (0.017 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.17% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-0 @ 2.43% (0.027 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.68% (-0.025 -0.03)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 16.71%
1-2 @ 3.99% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 2.73% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.94% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-2 @ 1.54% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.5% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 14.42%

How you voted: Bolivar vs Palestino

Bolivar
55.0%
Draw
30.0%
Palestino
15.0%
20
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2024 1am
Group Stage
Palestino
0-4
Bolivar

Roman (24'), Rojas (33'), Cornejo (36'), Carrasco (45+2'), Zuniga (61')
Roman (45+2')
Da Costa (27' pen., 34'), Savio (63'), Vaca (83')
Orihuela (58')
rhs 2.0
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