Columbus Crew and Toronto square off in Major League Soccer action on Saturday, as both sides look to kickstart their seasons after inconsistent starts.
The hosts did pick up a positive result last time out, as they defeated New York City FC 2-1 to move up to eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, while their opponents suffered a 1-0 defeat to high-flying Orlando City on Sunday.
Match preview
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Columbus Crew picked up a victory thanks to some late drama last time out, as they took on New York City away from home.
The hosts led for the majority of the encounter thanks to Ismael Tajouri's opener, but Lucas Zelarayan equalised for the Crew in the 82nd minute, and the game looked set to end 1-1 until he popped up with the winner in the 95th minute to snatch all three points for his side.
That followed back-to-back defeats for Caleb Porter's side, most recently losing 1-0 to group leaders New England Revolution after they were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Saturday's opponents away from home.
In their efforts to defend the MLS Cup trophy that they won last year, the Crew have had a mixed start to the season, having picked up eight points from their first six league matches.
As it stands, Porter's men sit in eighth spot, although at this early stage of the season, they could quickly move into the playoff spots if they can build a strong run of form, with sixth-placed New York City and seventh-placed CF Montreal also sitting on eight points.
They will now look to add a second consecutive victory for the first time this season, when they play host to a struggling Toronto side.
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The visitors fell to a narrow defeat at the hands of second-placed Orlando City last time out, as they were unable to bounce back from Tesho Akindele's early opener despite having the better of the chances.
That was a third defeat of the MLS season for Chris Armas's side, while their only victory came against Columbus Crew earlier in May.
In that game, Michael Bradley put them ahead in the 13th minute, and they led throughout with Jozy Altidore sealing the three points with a second goal in the dying minutes.
However, that result failed to trigger a turnaround for the Reds, as they now sit in 12th spot in the Eastern Conference with a disappointing tally of five points from the opening six matches of the season.
Similarly to their opponents though, Toronto can quickly move into the playoff spots if they can put a strong run together, with just three points separating them from sixth-placed New York City, while a win on Saturday could see them leapfrog Columbus.
Armas's men will hope to trigger that reversal of fortunes sooner rather than later, as they aim to establish themselves in the top seven as the division begins to take shape.
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Team News
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Columbus Crew have an unenviable injury list to deal with, as Kevin Molino, Marlon Hairston, Aidan Morris and Perry Kitchen all continue spells on the sidelines.
They are joined by forward Derrick Etienne and important left-back Milton Valenzuela, as the pair have both recently been absent through injury.
In the absence of Etienne, the line should be led by experienced forward Gyasi Zardes with the wide threat of Luis Espinoza and Pedro Santos.
They will be supported by Lucas Zelarayan, who netted a brace last time out to seal their second MLS victory of the season.
Toronto also come into Saturday's clash with several selection concerns, as defenders Justin Morrow and Julian Dunn-Johnson will miss out alongside midfielder Alejandro Pozuelo.
Their main issues come in attack though, as Dominic Dwyer, Ifunanyachi Achara and Erickson Gallardo are all ruled out.
In their absence, the line will be led by the experienced Jozy Altidore, while Marco Delgado and Yeferson Soteldo will look to cause problems from the wide areas.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Afful, Jonathan, Williams, Francis; Nagbe, Artur; Espinoza, Zelarayan, Santos; Zardes
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Laryea, Gonzalez, Mavinga, Lawrence; Auro, Bradley; Soteldo, Osorio, Delgado; Altidore
We say: Columbus Crew 2-1 Toronto
Despite the Toronto victory in the reverse fixture, Columbus have looked the slightly stronger of the two sides this season, and we see them narrowly defeating the Reds on home turf.
Porter's men will be desperate to build on their previous win to quickly move into the playoff places, and they should have enough to secure a second straight victory.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 48.19%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-2 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Columbus Crew in this match.
