Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 23, 2024 at 5pm UK
Victoria Stadium, Wincham
Lincoln0 - 2Qarabag
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Hamrun Spartans (5-4 pen.)
Tuesday, July 16 at 5pm in Champions League
Tuesday, July 16 at 5pm in Champions League
We said: Lincoln Red Imps 1-3 Qarabag FK
Although Lincoln have been strong in their domestic league, it is difficult to ignore Qarabag's superior record in European competitions. Additionally, while the hosts did progress from the first qualifying round, they found it difficult, and Tuesday's clash could be even more challenging given the calibre of opposition. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 50.47%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lincoln Red Imps | Draw | Qarabag FK |
26.52% ( -3.23) | 23.01% ( -0.3) | 50.47% ( 3.53) |
| Both teams to score 59.86% ( -1.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.21% ( -0.89) | 40.79% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.82% ( -0.91) | 63.18% ( 0.92) |
| Lincoln Red Imps Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.53% ( -2.68) | 28.47% ( 2.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.76% ( -3.5) | 64.24% ( 3.5) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0.98) | 16.32% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.1% ( 1.74) | 45.9% ( -1.74) |
| Score Analysis |
Lincoln Red Imps 26.52%
Qarabag FK 50.47%
Draw 23.01%
| Lincoln Red Imps | Draw | Qarabag FK |
| 2-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.54) 1-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.43)3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.46)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.33)3-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.32)Other @ 3.53% Total : 26.52% | 1-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.01% | 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.6)0-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.77)1-3 @ 5.8% ( 0.35)0-3 @ 4.61% ( 0.6)2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.63% ( 0.24)0-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.33)2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 0.95% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.45% Total : 50.47% |
How you voted: Lincoln vs Qarabag
Lincoln Red Imps
10.0%Draw
10.0%Qarabag FK
80.0%60
Head to Head
Jul 19, 2023 5pm
First Qualifying Round 2nd Leg
Qarabag
4-0
Lincoln
Form Guide
