Brasileiro | Gameweek 34
Nov 20, 2021 at 10pm UK
Arena Conda
Chapecoense1 - 3Gremio
With relegation already confirmed, Chapecoense will be looking to restore some pride in their remaining five Campeonato Brasileiro fixtures, and they will aim to collect their second victory of the season when they host Gremio on Saturday.
The visitors could also be relegated this season, as they head into the weekend in 18th position and six points adrift of safety.
Read more.
Match preview
Chapecoense will be grateful that their miserable season is nearing an end, with Saturday's hosts rock bottom of the league table. They have only managed one victory all season, and they enter Saturday's encounter on the back of consecutive 2-0 defeats. A loss at home to Juventude was followed by another defeat in midweek, with goals from Marinho and Marcos Guilherme helping Santos to victory. There has been little for Chapecoense fans to cheer about this season, demonstrated by their side holding the worst defensive record in the league - conceding 56 goals this term. Chapecoense's away form suggests that the Gremio clash will be a struggle, with the visitors suffering five defeats in their previous six away games. Gremio are in a precarious position with only six matches left, and they will need to finish the season strong if they are to close the six-point gap to safety. Although, they will be encouraged after collecting two wins in their last three games, which included an impressive 3-0 victory in midweek against Bragantino. Goals from Diego Souza, Lucas Silva and Jhonata Robert guided Gremio to a comfortable victory that they will aim to build upon that result at the weekend. If Gremio are to avoid the drop then they need to improve in their final three away games, having only collected three league victories on the road this season. Only Chapecoense have conceded more away goals than Gremio this term, and Saturday's visitors are also struggling to find the net on their travels, with only 10 goals to their name this season.Chapecoense Brasileiro form:
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
Gremio Brasileiro form:
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
Team News
Thigh problems rule Perotti and Kadu out of the contest for Chapecoense, while Felipe Silva and Vagner miss the encounter due to ankle and knee issues respectively. Injuries have been stacking up for the hosts, with Felipe Santana and Tiepo set to miss the rest of the season. Henrique Almeida came into the starting lineup in midweek, and he is set to lead the line once again on Saturday. Gremio are without the services of Douglas Costa, who is still missing with a muscle injury. Goalkeeper Gabriel Chapeco and Mathias Villasanti will come into the starting lineup after returning from international duty. Miguel Borja is also available following international duty, however the forward will likely have to settle for a place on the bench. Chapecoense possible starting lineup: Paulo; Ezequiel, Laercio, Jordan, Busanello; Moises, Leite, Lima; Kaio, Mike, Almeida Gremio possible starting lineup: Brenno; Rafinha, Geromel, Kannemann, Cortez; Villasanti, Silva, Dos Santos; Campaz, Ferreira, SouzaWe said: Chapecoense 1-2 Gremio
Although Gremio have struggled on the road this term, a trip to the side bottom of the league presents a glorious opportunity for the visitors to instil some impetus into their season, and we think Gremio will edge out their hosts on Saturday to claim consecutive victories.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 42.15%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chapecoense | Draw | Gremio |
| 30.51% | 27.34% | 42.15% |
| Both teams to score 48.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
