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[monks data]
PSV
Eredivisie | Gameweek 24
Feb 28, 2021 at 1.30pm UK
Philips Stadium
Ajax

PSV
1 - 1
Ajax

Zahavi (39')
Boscagli (54'), Zahavi (87'), Malen (89'), Dumfries (90+1'), Teze (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Tadic (90+2' pen.)
Alvarez (38')

Preview: PSV Eindhoven vs. Ajax - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Ajax take on title rivals PSV Eindhoven on Sunday afternoon with the opportunity to move nine points clear at the top of the Eredivisie standings.

While the home side have been inconsistent of late, getting the better of the league leaders will keep them in the hunt for the top-flight crown.


Match preview

Ajax manager Erik Ten Hag pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Having progressed through to the last 16 of the Europa League, there will come a time when Erik ten Hag will place more focus on trying to end Ajax's wait for a European trophy.

However, there is still work to do on the domestic scene, especially this weekend as Ajax look to record a victory which will realistically leave them having one hand on the top-flight crown.

Dropping just four points in 11 league matches has led to the defending champions extending their advantage over their next opponents, who have also played a game more than their rivals.

Sebastien Haller has been left frustrated due to being accidentally omitted from the club's European fixtures, but already contributing five goals and five assists in eight matches suggests that his extra freshness will prove key in the long term.

On the same night that Ajax were able to edge past Lille, PSV were dumped out of the Europa League after losing 5-4 on aggregate to Olympiacos.

Roger Schmidt's side were on their way through to the last 16 on away goals until Koka scored with two minutes remaining, delivering a hammer blow to a team which have under-performed in recent weeks.

Now out of both cup competitions, Schmidt and his side are left to focus on the Eredivisie, knowing that anything other than a win on Sunday may leave them with too much ground to make up during the final third of the season.

Schmidt will take the positives from wins being recorded against Vitesse and Olympiacos over 90 minutes, but his defence have now kept just one clean sheet in seven matches.

PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie form: WWLWDW
PSV Eindhoven form (all competitions): WLDLWW

Ajax Eredivisie form: WWWWWW
Ajax form (all competitions): WWWWWW


Team News

PSV Eindhoven head coach Roger Schmidt pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Schmidt will again be without Ibrahim Sangare, who follows his European suspension with a one-match ban in the Dutch top flight.

While the team could remain the same from Thursday night, Mauro Junior, Yorbe Vertessen and Mohamed Ihattaren are all in contention for starting roles.

Haller will return to the Ajax XI after sitting out the victory over Lille earlier this week.

With Dusan Tadic reverting back to a creative role, either Antony or David Neres will drop down to the substitutes' bench.

Nicolas Tagliafico and Noussair Mazraoui are unlikely to shake off injuries in time to feature in the squad.

PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Mvogo; Dumfries, Teze, Viergever, Max; Boscagli, Rosario; Thomas, Zahavi, Gotze; Malen

Ajax possible starting lineup:
Stekelenburg; Rensch, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Alvarez, Gravenberch; Antony, Klaassen, Tadic; Haller


SM words green background

We say: PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Ajax

After their efforts in midweek, tiredness will inevitably be a factor. Ajax's greater strength in depth could end up proving decisive, leading us to predict that the visitors will outlast their rivals in the closing stages to claim maximum points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 46.41%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.99%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: PSV vs Ajax

PSV Eindhoven
23.7%
Draw
7.9%
Ajax
68.4%
38
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV17150259134645
2Ajax17123237162139
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