Taca de Portugal | Final

May 22, 2022 at 5.15pm UK

Estádio Nacional

Porto
3 - 1
Tondela

Taremi (22' pen., 74'), Vitinha (52')
Grujic (77'), Conceicao (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Borges (73')
Alves (17'), Barbosa (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Taca de Portugal clash between Tondela and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

Last Six:

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Tondela
Sunday, May 22 at 5.15pm in Taca de Portugal

Next Game: Porto vs. Tondela
Sunday, July 31 at 8.45pm in Portuguese Super Cup

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Porto	34	64	91
2	Sporting Lisbon	33	47	82
3	Benfica	33	47	71

Tondela

Last Six:

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Tondela
Sunday, May 22 at 5.15pm in Taca de Portugal

Next Game: Porto vs. Tondela
Sunday, July 31 at 8.45pm in Portuguese Super Cup

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
16	Moreirense	33	-17	29
17	Tondela	34	-26	28
18	Belenenses	34	-32	26

Still licking their wounds following their relegation, Tondela will head into the weekend seeking to restore some pride and pick up their first cup title. However, they have lost each of their last 12 games against Porto, while managing just one win in their last 15 encounters. Looking at the gulf in quality and experience between the sides, we are tipping Porto to come away with a comfortable win and clinch the title on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 81.78%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 5.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.99%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.88%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Tondela
81.78% ( 1.58)	12.35% ( -1.24)	5.87% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 42.84% (

2.77)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.09% (

4.79)

34.91% (

-4.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.11% (

5.16)

56.89% (

-5.16)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.54% (

1.35)

6.46% (

-1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

75.84% (

3.58)

24.16% (

-3.58)

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.8% (

2.33)

54.2% (

-2.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.6% (

1.38)

87.4% (

-1.38)

Score Analysis

Porto 81.77%

Tondela 5.87%

Draw 12.35%

Porto	Draw	Tondela
2-0 @ 13.14% ( -1.21) 3-0 @ 11.99% ( -0.2) 1-0 @ 9.59% ( -1.67) 4-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.39) 4-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.6) 5-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.54) 5-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.5) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.27) 6-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.37) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.28) 6-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.3) Other @ 4.04% Total : 81.77%	1-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.55) 0-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.92) 2-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.51% Total : 12.35%	0-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.38) 1-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.92% Total : 5.87%