Eswatini and Lesotho will both look to start their COSAFA Cup campaigns with a victory on Tuesday, when they battle in the first group stage game in South Africa.
Having both failed to qualify for the upcoming African Cup of Nations, the two teams will hope for a better performance in the sub-continental competition, with Tuesday's result making a big impact on who qualifies out of the group.
Match preview
Eswatini had a particularly difficult qualifying campaign, having been drawn in a group with Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Congo.
They started the group with three consecutive defeats, losing 3-0 to Guinea-Bissau, 4-1 to Senegal and 2-0 to Congo.
However, they then held Congo to a goalless draw to earn a commendable point, and their 3-1 defeat to Guinea-Bissau was followed by another creditable point as they drew 1-1 with group winners Senegal, although they did look set to win that game.
Eswatini led for more than 90 minutes, as Sabelo Gamedze's fourth-minute opener looked to have made the difference until Cheikhou Kouyate levelled the game in the 96th minute to force Dominic Kunene's men to share the points.
Having never qualified for a major tournament, they will aim for a positive COSAFA Cup campaign this summer, starting with what would be a crucial win to start the group stage on Tuesday.
Lesotho had a similarly tough African Cup of Nations qualifying campaign, losing three of their six games and drawing the other three.
They picked up their points in a 0-0 draw and a 1-1 draw with Sierra Leone, as well as a goalless draw with Benin.
Benin would narrowly beat Lesotho 1-0 in the reverse fixture, while group winners Nigeria recorded a 4-2 victory and a 3-0 win in the final round of group fixtures, with Victor Osimhen, Peter Etebo and Paul Onuachu all getting on the scoresheet most recently.
They will also aim to start with a win in an important game in terms of deciding who takes spots in the top two in group A of the COSAFA Cup.
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Team News
Sabelo Ndzinisa is expected to lead the Eswatini line alongside Fanelo Mamba.
While the entire squad plays domestic football within Eswatini, the likes of Lindo Mkhonta, Sifiso Matse and Siboniso Ngwenya do bring valuable experience on the international stage.
Sandanezwe Mathabela also brings a degree of experience, and he should start in net on Tuesday.
Lesotho currently boast a fairly talented squad, with the likes of Sera Motebang and Jane Thabantso capable of causing plenty of problems going forward.
Further back, Basia Makepe and Motlomelo Mkwanazi should both be key men in the defensive line, shielding whoever is picked out of Sekhoane Moerane and Monaheng Ramalefane between the sticks.
Eswatini possible starting lineup:
Mathabela; Mkhonta, Msibi, Motsa, Chauke; Ngwenya, Matse, Gamedze, Shabangu; Ndzinisa, Mamba
Lesotho possible starting lineup:
Moerane; Mkhwanazi, Makepe, Lerotholi, Mokokoana; Koetle, Kalake, Bereng, Mokhachane; Motebang, Thabantso
We say: Eswatini 0-2 Lesotho
Although both sides were eliminated at the bottom of their respective groups in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations, we believe Lesotho boast the much stronger squad, and should have enough to record a convincing win on Tuesday.
Their attacking line has plenty of experience on the international stage, while scoring goals in the South African domestic game, and they should be able to fire their nation to an important win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 37.11%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.46%) and 2-1 (7.01%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 0-1 (12.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eswatini would win this match.
