SheBelieves Cup | Semi-Finals

Apr 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

USA Women
2 - 1
Japan Women

Shaw (21'), Horan (77' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-1)

Seike (1')
Minami (29'), Ueki (45+1')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the SheBelieves Cup Semi-Finals clash between USA Women and Japan Women.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA Women

All competitions

Last Game: Sweden Women 0-0 USA Women (5-4 pen.)
Sunday, August 6 at 10am in Women's World Cup

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands Women	3	8	7
2	USA Women	3	3	5
3	Portugal Women	3	1	4
4	Vietnam Women	3	-12	0

Japan Women

All competitions

Last Game: Japan Women 1-2 Sweden Women
Friday, August 11 at 8.30am in Women's World Cup

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan Women	3	11	9
2	Spain Women	3	4	6
3	Zambia Women	3	-8	3
4	Costa Rica Women	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 48.58%. A win for Japan Women had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Japan Women win was 0-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Women would win this match.

Result
USA Women	Draw	Japan Women
48.58% ( -1.5)	25.44% ( 0.26)	25.97% ( 1.24)

Both teams to score 51.38% (

0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.26% (

-0.08)

51.74% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.49% (

-0.07)

73.51% (

0.07)

USA Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.69% (

-0.67)

21.31% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.74% (

-1.05)

54.26% (

1.05)

Japan Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.29% (

1.02)

34.7% (

-1.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.56% (

1.06)

71.43% (

-1.06)

Score Analysis

USA Women 48.58%

Japan Women 25.97%

Draw 25.44%

USA Women	Draw	Japan Women
1-0 @ 11.43% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.84% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 4.55% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.42% Total : 48.58%	1-1 @ 12.1% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.09) Other @ 1% Total : 25.44%	0-1 @ 7.83% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.14% Total : 25.97%