Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Pordenone Calcio had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Pordenone Calcio win was 0-1 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.