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Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Empoli logo

AC Milan
1 - 0
Empoli

Pulisic (40')
Reijnders (26')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Fazzini (24'), Pezzella (53'), Zurkowski (65'), Cancellieri (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Empoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AC Milan 4-2 Slavia Prague
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Cagliari
Sunday, March 3 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-0 Empoli

Now capable of scoring via a number of different sources, Milan should be able to rotate their squad between European contests and still take maximum points against Empoli. The Azzurri are much improved under Davide Nicola, but they must take a step-up in class on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 63.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 16.42%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawEmpoli
63.06% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08) 20.51% (0.053999999999998 0.05) 16.42% (0.029 0.03)
Both teams to score 53.09% (-0.124 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.46% (-0.198 -0.2)42.53% (0.199 0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.06% (-0.19600000000001 -0.2)64.94% (0.19800000000001 0.2)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.13% (-0.080999999999989 -0.08)12.86% (0.083 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.75% (-0.173 -0.17)39.25% (0.174 0.17)
Empoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.93% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)39.07% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.21% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)75.79% (0.084000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 63.05%
    Empoli 16.42%
    Draw 20.51%
AC MilanDrawEmpoli
2-0 @ 10.56% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 10.3% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.93%
3-0 @ 7.22% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.79% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.7% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.48% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.19% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.64% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.52% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.43% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 63.05%
1-1 @ 9.69% (0.032 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.03% (0.044 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.67% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.0079999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 20.51%
0-1 @ 4.72% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 4.55% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 2.22% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.46% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 16.42%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Empoli

AC Milan
87.5%
Draw
7.3%
Empoli
5.2%
96
Head to Head
Jan 7, 2024 11.30am
Gameweek 19
Empoli
0-3
AC Milan

Marin (81')
Loftus-Cheek (11'), Giroud (31' pen.), Traore (88')
Calabria (41'), Jimenez (54')
Apr 7, 2023 8pm
Oct 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Empoli
1-3
AC Milan
Bajrami (90+1')
Rebic (79'), Ballo-Toure (90+3'), Leao (90+6')
Mar 12, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
AC Milan
1-0
Empoli
Kalulu (19')
Tonali (90+4')
Dec 22, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Empoli
2-4
AC Milan
Bajrami (18'), Pinamonti (84' pen.)
Romagnoli (62')
Kessie (12', 42'), Florenzi (63'), Hernandez (69')
Tonali (39'), Bennacer (80')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Browns
32-41
Broncos
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli1410222191232
2Atalanta BCAtalanta14101336162031
3Inter Milan1384131141728
4Fiorentina1384127101728
5Lazio1491429171228
6Juventus146802281426
7AC Milan136432314922
8Bologna135621816221
9Udinese145271621-517
10Empoli143741014-416
11Parma143652022-215
12Torino144371620-415
13CagliariCagliari143561524-914
14Genoa143561324-1114
15Roma143471420-613
16Lecce14347722-1513
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1440101733-1612
18Como142571426-1211
19Monza141761217-510
20VeneziaVenezia1422101125-148


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