Making their first respective appearances in the knockout portion of the Leagues Cup, the San Jose Earthquakes host Necaxa on Thursday at PayPal Park.
Despite a 2-1 defeat to the Los Angeles Galaxy in their previous encounter, the Quakes finished second in their West 2 group, while the Mexicans beat the Seattle Sounders 3-1 to claim the top spot in West 6.
Match preview
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It was not the smoothest group phase for San Jose, but they did enough to advance, winning the tiebreaker over Guadalajara by defeating them on penalties in their first game.
Their two points gained in the opening round of this tournament were two more than this team had ever earned in any Leagues Cup campaign before this year.
Interim manager Ian Russell has only collected one victory in normal time since taking over from Luchi Gonzalez when his team defeated the Chicago Fire 1-0 in early July.
That was the last time this side had won a game played at PayPal Park within 90 minutes, with the Quakes losing three of their previous four home contests across all competitions.
Throughout the 2024 Major League Soccer campaign, the Goonies have struggled to maintain their advantages, losing five times when scoring first.
The only normal time victory for them versus a Liga MX side came in the 2002 CONCACAF Champions Cup quarter-finals when they defeated Pachuca 1-0 at home in the second leg of that tie but were eliminated 3-1 on aggregate.
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Another early goal conceded last weekend seemed to wake Necaxa up this time, as they stormed back to score three unanswered at Lumen Field.
That victory created a three-way tie in West 6, with Los Once Hermanos finishing on top of the group thanks to a superior goal difference (+1).
On Sunday, Eduardo Fentanes saw his side score multiple goals in a game for the first time since matchday two of the Apertura campaign when they defeated Puebla 4-1.
Meanwhile, the three goals scored in Seattle are two more than this side had managed in their previous three Leagues Cup affairs combined.
The only two goals this team conceded in the group phase occurred within the opening 10 minutes of play, while they have not drawn first blood since a 1-1 draw versus Club Leon on matchday four of the current domestic season.
Los Rayos have an opportunity to win consecutive matches away from home Thursday for the first time since claiming successive Clausura triumphs in mid-March and early April.
Team News
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In their defeat to the Galaxy, San Jose were without Carlos Akapo and Jamar Ricketts due to lower-body issues, while JT Marcinkowski was not available as he is recovering from an ACL injury.
Jeremy Ebobisse is the only Quakes player to have found the back of the net for them in this competition (two goals), temporarily putting them on level terms with the Galaxy before his side conceded a winner one minute before the 90.
Against Seattle, Necaxa did not have Alek Alvarez available as the midfielder is still dealing with a shoulder injury, which kept him out of their two group fixtures.
Agustin Palavecino equalised on Sunday with a strike in the 24th minute before Diber Cambindo netted the winner late in the opening half and Kevin Rosero scored in second-half stoppage time.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Kikanovic, Rodrigues, Beason, Costa; Yueill, Gruezo; Espinoza, Lopez, Pellegrino; Ebobisse
Necaxa possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Martinez, Montes, Oliveros, Alcantar; Arce, Palavecino; Garnica, Paradela, Sandoval; Cambindo
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Necaxa
Necaxa scored three times against the second-best defensive unit in Major League Soccer for goals conceded, and that should give them a significant confidence boost heading into this game.
We believe they will have their share of opportunities against a San Jose backline that have given up an MLS-high 61 goals in the regular season.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
