Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Tula win with a probability of 46.91%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 26.48%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Krylia Sovetov win it was 0-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.