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Rochdale
League Two | Gameweek 30
Mar 29, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Spotland
Carlisle United

Rochdale
2 - 0
Carlisle

Kelly (10' pen.), Grant (81')
Lynch (70')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Simeu (5'), Devine (63'), Dickenson (90+3')

Preview: Rochdale vs. Carlisle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League Two clash between Rochdale and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two teams in the bottom half of League Two will meet on Tuesday as they look to continue pushing away from the relegation zone, with Carlisle United making the trip to face Rochdale.

The visitors have been in strong form as of late, winning six of their seven previous outings, while the hosts are without a victory in seven.


Match preview

Kwadwo Baah celebrates scoring for Rochdale on January 12, 2021© Reuters

Rochdale have pushed slightly away from the relegation zone, as they are nine points clear, but with eight games still to go, there is a lot of points to play for.

The squad are hoping to create a bigger gap between themselves and the bottom two, and that will start on Tuesday when they welcome a team that are only two places above them.

However, Robbie Stockdale's team are in a run of seven matches without a victory, and that is something that started when they last faced Carlisle, as they were beaten 2-0.

Goals from Omari Patrick and Tobi Sho-Silva separated them on that day, and following that the best they have managed is a draw, which has seen Rochdale involved in the relegation fight.

The Dale were beaten by Crawley Town on Saturday, with Ashley Nadesan's strike being the difference maker between the two teams, as the game finished 1-0.

On the other hand, Carlisle were victorious once again in their most recent outing, with Kristian Dennis scoring the only goal of the match against Bristol Rovers.

This marked their sixth victory in seven games, as the Blues have taken themselves away from the relegation struggle that they were in, putting together a strong run of form.

New manager Paul Simpson has made an obvious impact in making that happen, and tightening up the defence has been part of that, with his team keeping clean sheets in half of their recent victories.

Carlisle could potentially climb to 14th in League Two with a midweek victory, depending on other results, which showcases the improvements that have been made.

The team have lost just seven of their home matches this season, and with the chance to bridge the gap between themselves and those below them on Tuesday, they will no doubt be confident of doing just that.

Rochdale League Two form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L

Carlisle United League Two form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Coach of England U19s Paul Simpson on July 26, 2018© Reuters

Neither James Ball nor Tahvon Campbell was able to play on Saturday after suffering knocks in their previous matches, and they will both be doubts once again for this fixture.

Josh Andrews did make his return to the squad, and he got some minutes from the bench as he continues to regain full fitness, and Max Taylor could be an option as he nears his comeback.

As for the visitors, Callum Guy and Jamie Devitt are both out of action with injuries, and neither man will be available to play in this fixture.

However, the Blues did gain some positive news from Saturday's match, as Corey Whelan's substitution was simply down to him being tired, meaning there is no concern about him being available.

Rochdale possible starting lineup:
Lynch; Downing, O'Connell, Dorsett; Clark, Dooley, Broadbent, O'Keefe; Done, Newby, Charman

Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Howard; Riley, Simeu, Feeney, Mellish, Armer; Gibson, Whelan, Dickenson; Patrick, Dennis


SM words green background

We say: Rochdale 0-2 Carlisle United

These teams are in completely different form right now, which is why Carlisle United head into this game as the firm favourites to take all three points.

They have been strong defensively, while proving themselves to have attacking options too, and that could be what separates them both in midweek.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rochdale would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Rochdale vs Carlisle

Rochdale
15.4%
Draw
11.5%
Carlisle United
73.1%
52
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