Pacos de Ferreira host Rio Ave at the Estadio Capital do Movel on Sunday as Os Castores look to close the gap on those sitting in the European qualifying spots.
The hosts currently sit in sixth place in the table having drawn against Sporting Farense 1-1 in a fractious affair last time out, while the visitors are in 13th after their 1-3 loss against Maritimo.
Match preview
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Pepa has led Pacos de Ferreira to the brink of the European places with a strong start to the campaign, including four wins and four draws in their first 11 games.
Pacos de Ferreira now sit only three points adrift of Vitoria Guimaraes and will fancy their chances of overturning that deficit in the coming month, if they can rediscover their form.
Although Pepa's men made a strong start to the season, they have faltered in recent weeks and are now without a win in five games, a run that has consisted of three losses and two draws.
Pepa and his players will however, be aware that they are coming out of a tough run of fixtures that included leaders Sporting Lisbon and reigning champions Porto.
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Mario Silva's men come into this matchup off the back of a mixed run of form that has consisted of three losses, one draw and one win, and sees them lie precariously above the relegation zone in 13th place.
Only two points separate them from Boavista in 16th place and Silva will be all too aware that if his side continue to be marred by inconsistency, they will face a battle to stay in the top tier.
The lack of goals seems to be the main issue for Rio Ave this season, having scored only three goals in their last five matches.
In fact, Silva's men have only scored six goals all season, a league-low tally that is only matched by fellow strugglers Belenenses, who sit one place below Rio Ave in 14th.
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: DWWWLD
Pacos de Ferreira form (all competitions): WWLLLD
Rio Ave Primeira Liga form: WDLDLL
Rio Ave form (all competitions): WLDWLL
Team News
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Jorge Silva remains sidelined for Pacos de Ferreira after suffering a ligament injury, while David Sualehe will again be absent after picking up a knock.
Mohamed Diaby and Adriano Castanheira are also pushing for a starting berth after impressing as substitutes in recent games.
Silva faces several dilemmas after the rejigging of his starting XI for the last match did not pay dividends.
Nikola Jambor could be asked to start in central midfield, while Gabrielzinho and Ronan could be offered rare starts.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Marcelo, Maracas, Reabciuk; Carlos, Eustaquio, Costa; Ferreira, Pedro, Singh
Rio Ave possible starting lineup:
Kieszek; Santos, Borevkovic, Amaral; Pinto, Pele, Jambor, Mane; Gabrielzinho, Ronan, Lopes
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 2-1 Rio Ave
The league table suggests that this should be a fairly straightforward win for Pacos de Ferreira, but with both sides struggling for form, it could well be closer than many think. We expect Pacos de Ferreira to seal a narrow win, but not without a few scares along the way.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 45.22%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 27.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.91%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
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