After suffering a heartbreaking last-gasp defeat to the league leaders Paris Saint-Germain (1-0) a week ago, Rennes return to Ligue 1 action on Sunday when they host Troyes at Roazhon Park.
Les Rennais are currently positioned to make a return trip to the Europa Conference League, leading Monaco and Lyon for fifth on goal difference, while Troyes conceded early and often at Brest in their previous match, falling 5-1.
Match preview
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It has been an up and down year so far for Bruno Genesio and his side, who have yet to win consecutive fixtures in 2022, although they still find themselves very much in the European mix for next season.
They were left to rue their half-chances squandered last Friday in the French capital, with the Parisians growing in confidence as the match wore on, putting the side from Brittany under tremendous pressure in the second half, as Stade Rennais eventually conceded a 93rd-minute strike to Kylian Mbappe.
Seeing two of the top three scoring sides in the league (Strasbourg being the other one) produce only one effort each on target was somewhat surprising, as no other domestic encounter this season has had fewer.
While it cannot feel good to lose six domestic encounters since December, the most in the top flight over that period alongside Saint-Etienne, they will fancy their chances to triumph this weekend, having captured eight victories at home in this campaign, second only to PSG (11).
Rennes can strike quickly and hit you for multiple goals, although they are equally sharp on the back end, conceding the third-fewest strikes in the league so far (22), while also being the only team in Ligue 1 in 2021-22 who have not given up a goal from outside the box.
When they do not face an intense press, they have been relatively successful in creating direct attacks starting from the back, which has allowed their front players to bury plenty of clear-cut opportunities.
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As Troyes boss Bruno Irles put it, last Sunday was a failed match for his side, who were severely exposed defensively versus Brest.
That was the second successive road fixture in which ESTAC conceded twice in the opening half, while failing to find an answer after the fact, something that Irles blamed himself for following their encounter with Les Pirates.
The 46-year-old coach remains convinced that we have not seen the maximum of what this team are capable of, and he will try to get more from them in attack moving forward, an area which has been a sore spot all season, netting the second-fewest goals in the league thus far (21), behind only Lorient (20).
With a week of reflection, you would think that there is a lot of work for them to do when it comes to fixing their shortcomings, currently just a point above Metz for relegation.
For most top-flight teams, 16th place is hardly worth bragging about, but given their struggles in previous Ligue 1 campaigns, their current position after 24 matches is actually the highest place for them at this stage of the competition since 2001-02, when they were fifth.
As good as Stade Rennais have been on their home ground this season, Troyes have experienced some decent success when travelling to Roazhon Park, earning a win or a draw in three of their previous four visits to Brittany.
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Team News
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Rennes have a few players who could soon be fully recovered from their injuries, including Lesley Ugochukwu, who has an ankle problem, Jeremy Doku continues to nurse a sore hamstring, Flavien Tait has been sidelined with a groin strain, while Romain Salin and Jeremy Gelin are not expected back until next month with a calf and ACL injury respectively.
Martin Terrier and Gaetan Laborde, who are tied for the team lead in goals with 11, have both tallied once in each of their previous two home fixtures, and they are one strike behind Jonathan David and Mbappe for second in the league.
Midfielder Lovro Majer has quietly put together a solid opening season for Les Rennais, with the Croatian producing six assists, which is one fewer than Lionel Messi, Amine Gouiri and Ludovic Ajorque for second domestically.
Adil Rami netted his third of the campaign for ESTAC last weekend, moving him into a tie for second on the team with Mama Balde, while Rominigue Kouame collected his second assist of the competition.
Renaud Ripart and Suk Hyun-Jun could both be out until late February with a thigh and unknown injury, respectively, while Karim Azamoum is unlikely to see the field until May because of an ACL issue.
Ike Ugbo made his first appearance for Troyes last Sunday, as the Canadian on loan from Genk started in attack alongside Lebo Mothiba, with the leading scorer for ESTAC, Xavier Chavalerin, replacing Giulian Biancone late in the opening half.
Rennes possible starting lineup:
Alemdar; Meling, Aguerd, Omari, Traore; Santamaria, Martin, Majer; Terrier, Laborde, Guirassy
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Conte, Palmer-Brown, Rami, Kabore; Chadli, Chavalerin, Tardieu, Chambost; Ugbo, Touzghar
We say: Rennes 2-0 Troyes
Their defensive shape last week was not what we have been used to seeing from ESTAC since Irles took over, so we expect them to be a lot more compact this weekend, although we do not anticipate that they will be able to find a way through an underrated defence.
Rennes could see plenty of tight marking in this match, but they have shown to be quite potent on their home soil, scoring eight goals in their last two games, while conceding none.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 78.2%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 7.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.78%) and 3-0 (11.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.96%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.
