Major League Soccer

Mar 5, 2023 at 1.30am UK

Toyota Park

Chicago Fire
1 - 1
NY City

Herbers (75')
Pineda (34')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Pereira (39')
Pellegrini (44'), Jasson (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Chicago Fire and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chicago Fire

All competitions

Last Game: Chicago Fire 1-1 New England
Sunday, October 9 at 7.30pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York City FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Nashville 2-0 NY City
Saturday, February 25 at 9.30pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Chicago Fire 1-1 New York City FC

With there being so many new faces in the NYCFC lineup, we suspect it will take some time for them to gel together as a unit, particularly on the backline. Nick Cushing's side should have an easier time containing the Chicago Fire attack rather than Nashville's, but New York have fired blanks in their past two matches, suggesting that they do not have the firepower to take all three points.

How to watch

You can watch Chicago Fire vs. New York City FC and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 34.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Chicago Fire	Draw	New York City FC
39.16% ( 0.06)	26.5% ( -0.02)	34.34% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 52.36% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.54% (

0.06)

52.46% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.86% (

0.05)

74.13% (

-0.05)

Chicago Fire Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.79% (

0.06)

26.21% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.69% (

0.08)

61.3% (

-0.08)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.95% (

29.04% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.05% (

64.95% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Chicago Fire 39.16%

New York City FC 34.34%

Draw 26.49%

Chicago Fire	Draw	New York City FC
1-0 @ 10.19% 2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 39.16%	1-1 @ 12.6% 0-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.49%	0-1 @ 9.41% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.79% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.21% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.4% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.57% Total : 34.34%