Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.