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Maritimo
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 34
May 14, 2022 at 6pm UK
Estadio dos Barreiros
Portimonense

Maritimo
0 - 1
Portimonense


Andrade (15'), Guitane (45'), Alipour (84')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ewerton (80')
Moufi (9'), Relvas (39')

Preview: Maritimo vs. Portimonense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Maritimo and Portimonense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Portimonense will seek to avoid three consecutive defeats when they visit Maritimo for the final game of the season on Saturday.

Maritimo, meanwhile, are on a similar poor run themselves and will bid to end a three-match winless streak to finish the season in the top half of the table.


Match preview

Shoya Nakajima in action for Japan in March 2018© Reuters

It has been a very solid campaign for both of these sides, who were relegation threatened last year.

Both teams ended just one point ahead of the relegation playoff, but have managed to stay up comfortably this season with Maritimo strongly pushing for a top-half finish.

They have done this by turning their fortunes around up front, with goals from Joel Tagueu proving crucial for the side, who had one of the worst offensive records last season.

Should they win on Saturday, then this will confirm their finish in the top-half of the table, provided there is not a nine-goal swing in favour of Pacos Ferreira in 10th.

However, they do not have the momentum and at the moment Maritimo are stumbling towards that top-half finish, with just two wins in their past 10 matches.

Nonetheless, Pacos de Ferreira's form is quite similar, and with a 2-1 win against Portimonense in this season's reverse fixture, Maritimo have every chance to finish this season on a high.

In terms of Saturday's visitors, despite their recent form it has still been a positive season for Paulo Sergio's side.

They have not looked like relegation fodder via a pretty solid backline, with many other teams posting worse defensive records.

In addition, should they win this weekend and other results go their way, Portimonense could end this season with a top-half finish.

To do so, Sergio's men must beat Maritimo by more than the 2-1 scoreline they were on the wrong end of in the reverse in order to gain the upper hand in the head-to-head record, while also hoping that other results go their way, with three teams currently splitting the sides.

It is also up front where Portimonense still struggle, so that might make it difficult this weekend considering the solidity of the Maritimo defence.

So, Saturday poses one final chance for these sides to end their recent poor form and finish the season positively, in what has been a much better campaign for both teams.

Maritimo Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D


Portimonense Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L


Team News


Portimonense will still be without Adewale Sapara, who sustained an injury in March's defeat to Benfica.

Other than that, Portimonense have a clean bill of health, with no players suspended for Saturday's match either.

Meanwhile, it is likely that Welinton Junior will once again lead the Portimonense forward line, following his goal in the 3-2 defeat to Sporting last weekend.

As for Maritimo, right-back Claudio Winck should return from suspension and slot straight into his side's defensive line.

This means Maritimo, too, have a clean bill of health meaning they could have a full strength lineup on display.

Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Silva; Winck, M.Costa, Junior, V.Costa; Beltrame, Rossi, E.Costa; Guitane, Joel, Vidigal

Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Moufi, Henrique, Relvas, Lazaar; Da Costa, Jocu, Carlinhos, Angulo; Nakajima; Junior


SM words green background

We say: Maritimo 1-1 Portimonense

Considering it is a game between two sides who are comfortably mid-table, it is unlikely this fixture will be a classic. Both sides are on poor form and will be looking forward to the end of the season, so a draw is the most likely outcome.



Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 52.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 22.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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