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Newcastle logo
Premier League | Gameweek 38
Jul 26, 2020 at 4pm UK
St. James' Park
Liverpool logo

Newcastle
1 - 3
Liverpool

Gayle (1')
Fernandez (33')
FT(HT: 1-1)
van Dijk (38'), Origi (59'), Mane (89')

Preview: Newcastle United vs. Liverpool - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's final-day Premier League clash between Newcastle and champions Liverpool, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Liverpool bring an historic and seminal campaign to a close on Sunday when they face Newcastle United at St James' Park on the final day of the 2019-20 Premier League season.

The champions finally got their hands on the trophy after beating Chelsea last time out, and they travel to a Newcastle side without a win in their last five outings.


Match preview

Liverpool players and staff celebrate winning the 2019-20 Premier League title© Reuters

There has been plenty of time for Liverpool to look back on their 2019-20 campaign over the course of the month since they wrapped up the title, and Sunday's match is another of those as they bring an unforgettable season to a close.

A spectacular trophy-lifting ceremony in The Kop followed Wednesday night's thrilling 5-3 triumph over Chelsea, and just as they marked that occasion with a win they will no doubt be keen to end the season in style too.

With the trophy long since secured and the all-time points record now out of reach there is not a great deal aside from pride left for Liverpool to fight for on the face of it, but some notable achievements are still up for grabs.

Victory would see them surpass last season's points tally of 97 and would set a new club record for a single campaign, beating the 98 they earned in 1978-79 when adjusted to three points for a win.

The record title-winning margin is also still possible, although for that to happen Jurgen Klopp's side would also need an unlikely favour from relegated Norwich City away to Manchester City.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp ahead of lifting the Premier League trophy on July 22, 2020© Reuters

The Merseysiders could also still equal the record for most wins in a season by chalking up number 32 of the campaign - an achievement Man City have managed in each of the last two terms.

However, for all of Liverpool's dominance throughout the season, their away record of late has been suspect to say the least - five defeats and only one win in their last seven outings on the road across all competitions.

Liverpool have shipped 10 goals in their five away league games in that run, which is as many as they had in their previous 19 on the road, so they will be relieved to face a Newcastle side that has struggled for goals all season.

Only Crystal Palace, Watford and Norwich have scored fewer than the Magpies in 2019-20, although they have certainly improved in that respect since lockdown with 12 goals in eight games - as many as they had managed in their previous 15.

Newcastle's lack of goals have also not hindered them too much as far as the table is concerned, with Steve Bruce having steered his side well clear of danger with plenty of time to spare.

Newcastle boss Steve Bruce on June 24, 2020© Reuters

The manager has certainly responded to his critics with his side's performances on the pitch, but he has also stressed that a club like Newcastle should be looking to do more than simply steer clear of relegation and so signs of improvement will also be important to him.

A four-game winless streak heading into this match has harmed their chances of achieving that, though, leaving them still one point adrift of last season's tally under Rafael Benitez.

The Magpies can finish no higher than 13th either - the same position as last season - although should they pull off a surprise win against the champions then they would record their highest Premier League points tally since 2013-14.

Newcastle do boast a formidable record on the final day of the season, winning each of their last five such matches by an aggregate score of 17-1, although Liverpool were the last team to inflict a season-ending defeat on them.

Indeed, the Reds have inflicted 76 top-flight defeats on Newcastle down the years, which is four more than the Magpies have suffered against any other opponent.

Newcastle Premier League form: WDLLLD

Liverpool Premier League form: LWWDLW


Team News

Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson lifts the Premier League trophy on July 22, 2020© Reuters

Liverpool will once again be without newly-crowned FWA Footballer of the Year Jordan Henderson as well as Joel Matip, but Klopp has no new injury concerns heading into this match.

Dejan Lovren, who is closing in on an £11m move to Zenit St Petersburg, and Adam Lallana could both be set for farewell appearances, although those will likely only be from the bench in order to avoid injuries.

Whether Klopp opts to shuffle his pack elsewhere remains to be seen, but one player almost certain to start is Virgil van Dijk, who is on the verge of becoming only the fifth outfield player to play every single minute of a Premier League title-winning campaign.

Goal-hungry Mohamed Salah will no doubt be desperate for a final chance to add to his tally for the season, while Klopp also has a decision to make in midfield with Naby Keita, Georginio Wijnaldum and sub Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain all scoring last time out.

Newcastle are facing something of an injury crisis at the back, with Jamaal Lascelles, Fabian Schar, Ciaran Clark, Paul Dummett and Florian Lejeune all ruled out of this match.

Emil Krafth is also a major doubt with an ankle problem to further limit Bruce's options, while midfielders Sean Longstaff and Isaac Hayden will undergo late fitness tests.

Joelinton will be pushing for a start, although even if he comes off the bench he will become only the third outfield player to have featured in every game of a Premier League campaign for Newcastle.

Despite that, the club-record signing has scored only two Premier League goals this term - four behind Newcastle's top-scorer and former Liverpool midfielder Jonjo Shelvey, whose tally of six is equal the fewest any Magpies top-scorer has managed in a Premier League season.

Newcastle possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Manquillo, Fernandez, Hayden, Rose, Ritchie; Shelvey, Bentaleb, Almiron; Saint-Maximin, Joelinton

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Wijnaldum, Fabinho, Keita; Salah, Firmino, Mane


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Newcastle 0-3 Liverpool

If this match was being played at most other stages of the season we would expect Newcastle to put up more of a fight, but the Magpies do not have much to play for and Bruce will be hard-pressed to even get 11 players onto the pitch given his defensive injury woes.

Liverpool will be keen to finish with a flourish and, while their away form has been poor of late, we expect Newcastle's weakened backline to struggle to deal with the Liverpool attack.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 61.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 17.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.73%) and 1-2 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson lifts the Premier League trophy on July 22, 2020
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton11119721-144


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