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Championship header 2

League Two
Sutton United
League Two | Gameweek 25
Jan 1, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Borough Sports Ground
AFC Wimbledon

Sutton
2 - 1
AFC Wimbledon

Randall (13'), Bugiel (69')
Bugiel (62')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Davison (40')
Woodyard (9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's League Two clash between Sutton United and AFC Wimbledon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sutton United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Sutton 2-1 Gillingham
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Colchester 1-2 AFC Wimbledon
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

We said: Sutton United 1-2 AFC Wimbledon

 Sutton's form has improved recently, but it is still no comparison to the dramatic turnaround orchestrated by Johnnie Jackson at Wimbledon. As such, we expect the visitors to secure a narrow victory in a closely-contested affair, winning by the same scoreline as they did on Thursday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 48.41%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 23.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.

Result
Sutton UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
48.41% (0.061 0.06) 27.93% (-0.093 -0.09) 23.66% (0.032 0.03)
Both teams to score 42.51% (0.259 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.82% (0.317 0.32)62.18% (-0.314 -0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.13% (0.232 0.23)81.87% (-0.22999999999999 -0.23)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.09% (0.17599999999999 0.18)25.91% (-0.175 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.1% (0.236 0.24)60.9% (-0.236 -0.24)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.38% (0.215 0.21)42.62% (-0.21400000000001 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.03% (0.184 0.18)78.97% (-0.18300000000001 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Sutton United 48.4%
    AFC Wimbledon 23.66%
    Draw 27.92%
Sutton UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
1-0 @ 14.91% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-0 @ 10.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.59% (0.035 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.015 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.87% (0.034 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.65% (0.025 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.53% (0.013 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 48.4%
1-1 @ 12.71% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 11.04% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.66% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 27.92%
0-1 @ 9.42% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.42% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.02%
1-3 @ 1.54% (0.017 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.14% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.04% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 1.08%
Total : 23.66%

How you voted: Sutton vs AFC Wimbledon

Sutton United
77.8%
Draw
11.1%
AFC Wimbledon
11.1%
9
Head to Head
Nov 22, 2022 7.45pm
Second Round
AFC Wimbledon
1-0
Sutton
Hudlin (17')

Bugiel (56')
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
AFC Wimbledon
0-1
Sutton

Pell (13')
Eastmond (30')
Nov 9, 2021 7.45pm
Sutton
1-0
AFC Wimbledon
Wilson (47')

Guinness-Walker (71')
Jan 17, 2017 7.45pm
Third Round
AFC Wimbledon
1-3
Sutton
Elliott (10')
Kelly (57'), Barnett (85')
Robinson (15')
Deacon (75'), Biamou (90'), Fitchett (96')
Deacon (34'), Spence (43'), Collins (82')
Jan 7, 2017 3pm
Third Round
Sutton
0-0
AFC Wimbledon

Downer (25'), Biamou (47'), Collins (60'), Bailey (75')

Reeves (22'), Robinson (61')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale1610332416833
2Walsall1593328151330
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster178542218429
4Notts County177732315828
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe158431913628
6MK Dons168352719827
7Chesterfield1767430201025
8Grimsby Town178181926-725
9AFC Wimbledon157262314923
10Bradford CityBradford166552117423
11Gillingham167271714323
12BarrowBarrow176471716122
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood145632015521
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham176382225-321
15Salford City165651518-321
16Newport CountyNewport176381926-721
17Harrogate TownHarrogate176381623-721
18Accrington StanleyAccrington164662226-418
19Colchester UnitedColchester163851922-317
20Tranmere RoversTranmere154561018-817
21Bromley153751719-216
22Swindon TownSwindon172782028-813
23Morecambe1734101729-1213
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1734101429-1513
> League Two Full Table


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