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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AFC Wimbledon in this match.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
42.8% ( 0.15) | 27.42% ( 0.03) | 29.78% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 48.07% ( -0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.76% ( -0.16) | 57.24% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.91% ( -0.13) | 78.09% ( 0.13) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.53% ( 0.01) | 26.46% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.35% ( 0.01) | 61.65% ( -0.01) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.37% ( -0.22) | 34.63% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.65% ( -0.23) | 71.35% ( 0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
1-0 @ 12.18% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.81% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.07% Total : 42.8% | 1-1 @ 12.92% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.42% | 0-1 @ 9.72% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.2% Total : 29.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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