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La Liga | Gameweek 33
Apr 27, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
3 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

De Paul (15'), Correa (52'), Simon (80' og.)
De Paul (5'), Hermoso (90+3'), Griezmann (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Williams (45')
Sancet (59'), Paredes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Alaves 2-0 Atletico
Sunday, April 21 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Granada
Friday, April 19 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

 Athletic really have to avoid defeat here if they are to stay in the top-four race, but it will be difficult considering Atletico's excellent home record this season. We were close to backing a narrow success for Simeone's side but have ultimately settled on a 1-1 draw, which would not be a bad result for either side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
43.85% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03) 25.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 30.49% (0.035999999999998 0.04)
Both teams to score 53.76% (0.034000000000006 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.93% (0.036000000000001 0.04)50.07% (-0.032999999999994 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.95% (0.032 0.03)72.04% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.24% (0.0049999999999955 0)22.76% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)56.44% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.6% (0.042999999999992 0.04)30.4% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.4% (0.051000000000002 0.05)66.6% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 43.85%
    Athletic Bilbao 30.49%
    Draw 25.66%
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.03% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 7.58% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.45% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.74% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.65% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 43.85%
1-1 @ 12.19%
0-0 @ 6.92% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.66%
0-1 @ 8.24% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.9% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 30.49%

How you voted: Atletico vs Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid
65.2%
Draw
17.4%
Athletic Bilbao
17.4%
92
Head to Head
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 2nd Leg
Athletic Bilbao
3-0
Atletico
Williams (13'), Williams (42'), Guruzeta (61')
Ruiz de Galarreta (40'), Muniain (45+3'), Lekue (66'), de Marcos (74')

Hermoso (28')
> Match Report
Feb 7, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Atletico
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')
> Preview
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 17
Athletic Bilbao
2-0
Atletico
Guruzeta (51'), Williams (64')

De Paul (49')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
1-0
Athletic Bilbao
Griezmann (73')
> Preview
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 9
Athletic Bilbao
0-1
Atletico
Griezmann (47')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona13110240122833
2Real Madrid1283125111427
3Atletico MadridAtletico137511971226
4Villarreal127322319424
5Osasuna136341720-321
6Athletic Bilbao135531913620
7Real BetisBetis135531412220
8Real Sociedad135351110118
9Mallorca135351010018
10GironaGirona135351617-118
11Celta Vigo135262022-217
12Rayo Vallecano124441313016
13Sevilla134361218-615
14Leganes133551316-314
15AlavesAlaves134181422-813
16Las PalmasLas Palmas133371622-612
17Getafe13175811-310
18Espanyol123181122-1110
19Real ValladolidValladolid132381025-159
20Valencia11146817-97
> La Liga Full Table


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