Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Kyoto Sanga had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Kyoto Sanga win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Kyoto Sanga
42.12% ( -0.21)	25.55% ( -0.04)	32.33% ( 0.24)

Both teams to score 54.93% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.09% (

0.24)

48.91% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29% (

0.22)

71% (

-0.22)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.91% (

23.08% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.08% (

0.01)

56.92% (

-0.01)

Kyoto Sanga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.42% (

0.28)

28.58% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.62% (

0.35)

64.37% (

-0.35)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 42.12%

Kyoto Sanga 32.33%

Draw 25.54%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Kyoto Sanga
1-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 42.12%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.54%	0-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.59% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.66% Total : 32.33%