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J1 League | Gameweek 25
Aug 7, 2024 at 11am UK
Kashima Soccer Stadium

Kashima Antlers
3 - 0
Sagan Tosu

Nono (18'), Nakama (53'), Anzai (79')
Morooka (47')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Nakahara (38'), Fukuta (42'), Kawahara (49'), Togashi (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's J1 League clash between Kashima Antlers and Sagan Tosu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Kashima Antlers 1-5 Brighton
Wednesday, July 24 at 11am in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 1-4 Hiroshima
Sunday, July 21 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Kashima Antlers 3-1 Sagan Tosu

While Sagan Tosu have experienced a slight upturn in their away record recently, it is difficult to back against the hosts, who have the best home record in the division this season and have not lost at this venue in almost a year. We feel this should be a fairly straightforward three points for the Antlers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kashima Antlers would win this match.

Result
Kashima AntlersDrawSagan Tosu
49.47% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01) 24.67% (0.00099999999999767 0) 25.86% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 53.7% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.36% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)48.64% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.24% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)70.76% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Kashima Antlers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.31%19.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.31%51.68%
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.86% (0.010000000000005 0.01)33.14% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.26% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)69.74% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Kashima Antlers 49.47%
    Sagan Tosu 25.86%
    Draw 24.66%
Kashima AntlersDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.6%
2-1 @ 9.52%
2-0 @ 8.62% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 5.16%
3-0 @ 4.67% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 2.09%
4-0 @ 1.9% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 49.47%
1-1 @ 11.71%
0-0 @ 6.53% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 5.26% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.66%
0-1 @ 7.21%
1-2 @ 6.47% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 3.98% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 2.38% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.94% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.47% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 25.86%

How you voted: Kashima Antlers vs Sagan Tosu

Kashima Antlers
81.3%
Draw
6.3%
Sagan Tosu
12.5%
16
Head to Head
Apr 20, 2024 6am
Gameweek 9
Sagan Tosu
4-2
Kashima Antlers
Kawahara (30'), Ryan (45+3', 80'), Fukuta (88')
Ryan (38'), Nagasawa (59')
Nono (11'), Suzuki (86' pen.)
Aug 19, 2023 10am
Gameweek 24
Kashima Antlers
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Higuchi (26'), Chinen (80' pen.)
Sekigawa (9'), Shoji (90+4')
Narahara (66')
Yamazaki (23'), Iwasaki (31'), Togashi (72'), Seok-Ho (78'), Narahara (82')
Aug 19, 2023 10am
Gameweek 24
Kashima Antlers
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Higuchi (26'), Chinen (80' pen.)
Sekigawa (9'), Shoji (90+4')
Narahara (66')
Yamazaki (23'), Iwasaki (31'), Togashi (72'), Seok-Ho (78'), Narahara (82')
May 27, 2023 9am
Gameweek 15
Sagan Tosu
2-2
Kashima Antlers
Moriya (27'), Hayakawa (69' og.)
Tashiro (66')
Nago (33'), Suzuki (90+1')
Sano (77'), Higuchi (80')
Sep 16, 2022 11am
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vissel KobeVissel Kobe36208857352268
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima361811766392765
3Machida Zelvia36189952312163
4Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka361612845341160
5Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers361611955401559
6Tokyo Verdy36141394746155
7Cerezo OsakaCerezo361313104343052
8FC Tokyo36149134949051
9Yokohama F MarinosYokohama36147155858049
10Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa361211134944547
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus36145174244-247
12Avispa Fukuoka361114113135-447
13Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki361113125852646
14Kyoto Sanga361210144354-1146
15Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare36129155152-145
16Albirex Niigata361011154458-1441
17Kashiwa ReysolReysol36913143849-1140
18Jubilo Iwata3698194564-1935
19Consadole SapporoConsadole36810184161-2034
20Sagan Tosu3685234268-2629


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