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J1 League | Gameweek 23
Jul 14, 2024 at 11am UK
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)
Gamba Osaka

Sagan Tosu
0 - 2
Gamba Osaka


Tezuka (84')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sakamoto (19'), Jebali (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's J1 League clash between Sagan Tosu and Gamba Osaka, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Albirex Niigata 3-4 Sagan Tosu
Saturday, July 6 at 10.30am in J1 League
Last Game: Gamba Osaka 4-0 Yokohama
Saturday, July 6 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Sagan Tosu 0-1 Gamba Osaka

Both teams are heading into this clash on the back of successive wins across all competitions and will be high in confidence - however, Gamba are on a three-game winless streak against Sagan, and are enjoying a good run on the road Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 40.34%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.

Result
Sagan TosuDrawGamba Osaka
32.66% (0.057000000000002 0.06) 26.99% (0.025000000000002 0.03) 40.34% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Both teams to score 50.42% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.24% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)54.77% (0.078000000000003 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.92% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)76.08% (0.063999999999993 0.06)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.72% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)31.28%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.36% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)67.64% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Gamba Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.37% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)26.63% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.13% (-0.107 -0.11)61.87% (0.105 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Sagan Tosu 32.66%
    Gamba Osaka 40.34%
    Draw 26.99%
Sagan TosuDrawGamba Osaka
1-0 @ 9.68% (0.029 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.44% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 5.63% (0.017 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.88% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-0 @ 2.18% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.91% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 32.66%
1-1 @ 12.81% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.33% (0.025 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.92% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 26.99%
0-1 @ 11.02% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.47% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.29% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.22% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.17% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.06% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 40.34%

How you voted: Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka

Sagan Tosu
25.0%
Draw
25.0%
Gamba Osaka
50.0%
8
Head to Head
Apr 14, 2024 7am
Gameweek 8
Gamba Osaka
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Sakamoto (45+3'), Miura (90+9')
Naganuma (41')
Yamazaki (7'), Togashi (32')
Sakaiya (56')
Aug 26, 2023 11am
Gameweek 25
Sagan Tosu
1-1
Gamba Osaka
Naganuma (61')
Park (90+4')
Yamami (90+6')
Feb 25, 2023 6am
Gameweek 2
Gamba Osaka
1-1
Sagan Tosu
Suzuki (51')
Kabayama (64')
Sep 3, 2022 11am
Gameweek 28
Gamba Osaka
0-3
Sagan Tosu

Patric (21'), Kyung-won (59')
Nishikawa (15'), Miyashiro (52'), Ono (78')
Seok-Ho (72')
May 29, 2022 9am
Gameweek 16
Sagan Tosu
2-1
Gamba Osaka
Horigome (19'), Seok-Ho (88')
Yamami (58')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vissel KobeVissel Kobe38219861362572
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima381911872432968
3Machida Zelvia381991054342066
4Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka381812849351466
5Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers381811960411965
6Tokyo Verdy381414105151056
7FC Tokyo38159145351254
8Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki381313126657952
9Yokohama F MarinosYokohama38157166162-152
10Cerezo OsakaCerezo381313124348-552
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus38155184447-350
12Avispa Fukuoka381214123338-550
13Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa381212144945448
14Kyoto Sanga381211154355-1247
15Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare38129175358-545
16Albirex Niigata381012164459-1542
17Kashiwa ReysolReysol38914153951-1241
18Jubilo Iwata38108204768-2138
19Consadole SapporoConsadole38910194366-2337
20Sagan Tosu38105234868-2035


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