Honestly, this match could go either way, as these two teams have probably been the most consistent at the 2023 Gold Cup, but it seems as though being under-the-radar heading into this competition has served Mexico well, while the pressure of potentially being the first side from Central America to win this tournament may be too much for Los Canaleros to handle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 59.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Panama had a probability of 16.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.13%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mexico in this match.
-0.11) 
0.21) 
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