FC Utrecht host AZ Alkmaar on Sunday afternoon in this festive Eredivisie fixture.
The visitors have been in good form of late, picking up 21 points from a possible 24 in recent weeks, while Utrecht ended their eight-game winless run last time out.
Match preview
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Rene Hake's men defeated basement side FC Emmen in midweek to pick up their first three points since late October.
Putting the ball in the back of the net has been a struggle for the Domstedelingen this season but keeping them out is something they have excelled at.
Just 19 goals conceded in their 13 top flight games mean Utrecht have the meanest defence in the bottom half of the division.
What success Hake's side has had in the current campaign has been built on a solid home record. Only Ajax have come away from the Stadion Galgenwaard with three points in 2020-21, and Utrecht will be confident of getting another positive result at the weekend.
A 3-1 win over fourth-placed Vitesse Arnhem on Wednesday made it three consecutive wins for AZ.
Arne Slot's side's strength lies in attack with their 33-goal haul meaning they have the joint-second most potent forward line in the Eredivisie.
The highly-rated young midfielder Teun Koopmeiners has been the driving force behind AZ's recent rise up the table.
His eight goals and three assists make the 22-year-old one of the most effective midfielders in the division despite playing a holding role in Slot's setup.
If the AFAS Stadium outfit secure victory by four or more goals on Sunday, then they will move up into third position ahead of the winter break.
FC Utrecht Eredivisie form: DDDLDW
FC Utrecht form (all competitions): DDLLDW
AZ Eredivisie form: WWLWWW
AZ form (all competitions): DLLWWW
Team News
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Utrecht's first-choice goalkeeper Maarten Paes will once again be unavailable after missing their last two fixtures with concussion.
Centre-back Emil Bergstrom is sidelined with a thigh problem, while 20-year-old shot-stopper Fabian de Keijzer is absent with a hand injury.
AZ have several stars injured coming into this one, with former Southampton midfielder Jordy Clasie continuing to suffer from coronavirus.
Centre-back Bruno Martins Indi and attacking midfielders Dani de Wit and Jeremy Helmer are also out of Sunday's encounter.
FC Utrecht possible starting lineup:
Oelschlagel; Warmerdam, Hoogma, Jago, Van der Maarel; Ramselaar, Van de Streek, Van Overeem; Elia, Mahi, Kerk
AZ possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Sugawara, Hatzidiakos, Letschert, Wijndal; Midtsjo, Koopmeiners, Reijnders; Stengs, Boadu, Karlsson
We say: FC Utrecht 0-2 AZ
A strong defence is coming up against a very strong attack when Utrecht take on AZ Alkmaar and it should make for an intriguing match. The likes of Koopmeiners, Calvin Stengs and Myron Boadu will likely have too much for Hake's men though and secure a narrow victory.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
