FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK

Elland Road

Leeds
1 - 1
Plymouth

Anthony (31')
Anthony (31')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Randell (73')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Leeds United and Plymouth Argyle, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leeds United

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Leeds 1-0 Norwich
Wednesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Plymouth 3-1 Cardiff
Saturday, January 20 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Leeds United 3-1 Plymouth Argyle

While changes are expected from both sides, that should only add to the uncertainty of who prevails at Elland Road. Plymouth will back themselves to at least earn a replay, but Leeds should still have enough quality to come through regardless of the team that they select. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 68.52%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 13.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 1-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.23%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 1-2 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Leeds United	Draw	Plymouth Argyle
68.52% ( 0.62)	17.84% ( -0.25)	13.64% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 55.56% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.12% (

0.33)

35.88% (

-0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.03% (

0.36)

57.97% (

-0.36)

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.47% (

0.24)

9.53% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.07% (

0.55)

31.93% (

-0.55)

Plymouth Argyle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.41% (

-0.31)

38.59% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.67% (

-0.3)

75.33% (

0.3)

Score Analysis

Leeds United 68.52%

Plymouth Argyle 13.64%

Draw 17.84%

Leeds United	Draw	Plymouth Argyle
2-0 @ 10.16% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.1% ( 0.06) 5-2 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.34% Total : 68.52%	1-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 17.84%	1-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.85% Total : 13.64%