We said: San Marino 0-3 Kazakhstan
San Marino invariably aim to avoid defeat instead of going all out to win, meaning that Fabrizio Costantini will likely set his team up for another damage-limitation job on Friday.
Given that San Marino have scored a solitary goal in their previous 11 outings, Kazakhstan look destined to claim a clean-sheet victory over the world's lowest-ranked national team.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 53.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 21.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.53%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for Kazakhstan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Kazakhstan.
0.12) 
-0.15) 
