Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 23, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

San Marino
0 - 2
N. Ireland

FT(HT: 0-1)

Charles (24', 55')
Brown (43')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between San Marino and Northern Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Marino

All competitions

Last Game: St Lucia 1-0 San Marino
Sunday, November 20 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current League D2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Estonia	0	0	0
2	Malta	0	0	0
3	San Marino	0	0	0

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: Greece 3-1 N. Ireland
Tuesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Greece	0	0	0
3	Cyprus	0	0	0
4	Kosovo	0	0	0

We said: San Marino 0-2 Northern Ireland

While this should theoretically be one of Northern Ireland's easiest fixtures of the group, it comes with the added pressure of being a must-win. Although the visitors should achieve that comfortably enough, do not expect the goals to flow as they normally do against San Marino. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 77.17%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 7.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.49%) and 0-3 (11.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.28%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Northern Ireland in this match.

Result
San Marino	Draw	Northern Ireland
7.09% ( 0.05)	15.74% ( 0.09)	77.17% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 37.47% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.84% (

-0.21)

46.16% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.54% (

-0.2)

68.46% (

0.2)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

41.68%

58.32% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.23%

89.77% (

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.91% (

-0.09)

10.09% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.77% (

-0.21)

33.22% (

0.21)

Score Analysis

San Marino 7.09%

Northern Ireland 77.15%

Draw 15.74%

San Marino	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.95% Total : 7.09%	1-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.25% ( 0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 15.74%	0-2 @ 15.47% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 13.49% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 11.83% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.35% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 6.79% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 6.38% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 3.66% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 3.11% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.49% Total : 77.15%