We said: Greece 1-1 Northern Ireland
We expect N. Ireland to dig in and make life very difficult for Greece, who looked like a side going through the motions in their defeat to Cyprus at the weekend.
A point is likely to be enough to see the visitors survive in League C, so Baraclough may set his team up to attempt to avoid defeat first and foremost.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 62.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 13.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.28%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.92%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (6.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greece would win this match.