Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Oct 26, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
3 - 1
AEK Athens

Oliveira (27'), Harit (60' pen.), Veretout (69' pen.)
Balerdi (26'), Clauss (32')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Pineda (53')
Sidibe (11'), Rota (45+4'), Amrabat (68'), Jonsson (83')
Stankovic (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and AEK Athens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Nice 1-0 Marseille
Saturday, October 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

AEK Athens

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Asteras 0-3 AEK Athens
Sunday, October 22 at 2pm in Greek Superleague

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Marseille 2-2 AEK Athens

With both Brighton and Ajax unable to claim maximum points in their Group B fixture, Marseille have the chance to climb to the top of the standings with a win on Thursday. However, AEK Athens have made a notable impression in the group stage and we believe that the Greek outfit can claim a hard-earned point against an out-of-sorts Marseille side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (5.98%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	AEK Athens
39.05% ( 0.19)	24.63% ( -0.02)	36.32% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 59.05% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.02% (

0.06)

43.98% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.64% (

0.06)

66.36% (

-0.06)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.56% (

0.12)

22.44% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.02% (

0.18)

55.98% (

-0.18)

AEK Athens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.13% (

-0.06)

23.87% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.94% (

-0.09)

58.06% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Marseille 39.05%

AEK Athens 36.32%

Draw 24.63%

Marseille	Draw	AEK Athens
2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 39.05%	1-1 @ 11.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.63%	1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 36.32%