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Europa League
Ajax
Europa League | League Stage
Sep 26, 2024 at 8pm UK
Amsterdam ArenA
Besiktas

Ajax
4 - 0
Besiktas

Fitz-Jim (31'), Godts (51', 73'), Taylor (55')
Fitz-Jim (21'), Hato (47')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Erhan Hekimoglu (45+1'), Onana (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ajax and Besiktas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 Ajax
Saturday, September 21 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Besiktas

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Besiktas 2-1 Eyupspor
Sunday, September 22 at 6pm in Turkish Super Lig

We said: Ajax 2-2 Besiktas

 Ajax have won back-to-back home matches by an aggregate scoreline of 8-0 recently, although the visit of Besiktas should pose a much sterner test for the Dutch giants on Thursday. The Black Eagles are unbeaten this season, and we expect that run to extend to nine matches in Amsterdam, but it is likely that they will have to settle for a point. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 55.87%. A win for Besiktas had a probability of 22.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Besiktas win was 1-2 (5.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
AjaxDrawBesiktas
55.87% (2.653 2.65) 21.76% (-0.697 -0.7) 22.36% (-1.957 -1.96)
Both teams to score 59.42% (-0.061 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.79% (1.05 1.05)39.2% (-1.054 -1.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.46% (1.091 1.09)61.54% (-1.093 -1.09)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.05% (1.218 1.22)13.95% (-1.22 -1.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.57% (2.349 2.35)41.43% (-2.351 -2.35)
Besiktas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.05% (-1.066 -1.07)30.95% (1.063 1.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.75% (-1.267 -1.27)67.25% (1.265 1.27)
Score Analysis
    Ajax 55.88%
    Besiktas 22.36%
    Draw 21.76%
AjaxDrawBesiktas
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.086 0.09)
1-0 @ 8.5% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
2-0 @ 8.38% (0.313 0.31)
3-1 @ 6.45% (0.328 0.33)
3-0 @ 5.5% (0.431 0.43)
3-2 @ 3.78% (0.086 0.09)
4-1 @ 3.18% (0.29 0.29)
4-0 @ 2.71% (0.319 0.32)
4-2 @ 1.86% (0.119 0.12)
5-1 @ 1.25% (0.163 0.16)
5-0 @ 1.07% (0.166 0.17)
Other @ 3.38%
Total : 55.88%
1-1 @ 9.97% (-0.346 -0.35)
2-2 @ 5.76% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-0 @ 4.32% (-0.216 -0.22)
3-3 @ 1.48% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 21.76%
1-2 @ 5.85% (-0.387 -0.39)
0-1 @ 5.06% (-0.412 -0.41)
0-2 @ 2.97% (-0.338 -0.34)
1-3 @ 2.29% (-0.224 -0.22)
2-3 @ 2.25% (-0.115 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.16% (-0.17 -0.17)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 22.36%

How you voted: Ajax vs Besiktas

Ajax
56.2%
Draw
23.3%
Besiktas
20.5%
249
Head to Head
Nov 24, 2021 5.45pm
Group Stage
Besiktas
1-2
Ajax
Ghezzal (22' pen.)
Larin (88')
Haller (54', 69')
Haller (85')
> Preview
Sep 28, 2021 5.45pm
Group Stage
Ajax
2-0
Besiktas
Berghuis (17'), Haller (43')

Yalcin (63'), Bozdogan (76'), Batshuayi (90+2')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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