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Europa League
Europa League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadion Miejski
Ajax

Jagiellonia
1 - 4
Ajax

Dieguez (5')
Dieguez (69')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Akpom (10', 61', 69' pen.), Godts (27')
Taylor (48'), Hato (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League playoff between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Last Game: Jagiellonia 2-4 Cracovia
Saturday, August 17 at 1.45pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: NAC Breda 2-1 Ajax
Sunday, August 18 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

We said: Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Ajax

 The Polish champions may have faltered over the past few days, but they are more than capable of competing with an Ajax side still searching for its identity. Given defensive frailties on both sides, a score draw could be on the cards this week, setting up an intriguing return in Amsterdam. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.84%) and 0-2 (5.11%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Jagiellonia BialystokDrawAjax
31.69%21.16% (0.0039999999999978 0) 47.14% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Both teams to score 70.72% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.83% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)28.17% (0.032999999999998 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.04% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)48.95% (0.041000000000004 0.04)
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.1% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)18.89% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.62% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)50.38% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.2% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)12.8% (0.016 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.89% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)39.11% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 31.69%
    Ajax 47.14%
    Draw 21.16%
Jagiellonia BialystokDrawAjax
2-1 @ 6.9% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-0 @ 4.03% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.94% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-1 @ 3.83% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-0 @ 3.36% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 1.87% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.64% (-0.002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.6% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-3 @ 1.13% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 31.69%
1-1 @ 8.28% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 7.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 2.7% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 2.42% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 21.16%
1-2 @ 8.52% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 5.84%
0-2 @ 5.11% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-1 @ 4.97% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-3 @ 4.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 3.5% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-4 @ 3% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-4 @ 2.5% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
0-4 @ 1.8%
3-4 @ 1.39% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-5 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
2-5 @ 1.03% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 47.14%

How you voted: Jagiellonia vs Ajax

Jagiellonia Bialystok
18.7%
Draw
17.3%
Ajax
64.0%
139
rhs 2.0
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