Eredivisie | Gameweek 33

May 21, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

Goffertstadion

Nijmegen
0 - 3
AZ

Kramer (22'), Schone (42')
Proper (83')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Karlsson (28', 50'), Clasie (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions

Last Game: FC Twente 4-0 Nijmegen
Friday, May 12 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: AZ 0-1 West Ham
Thursday, May 18 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar are no longer in the Europa Conference League, meaning they will be fully focussed on trying to reach the Europa League via their final position in the Eredivisie, and we expect them to get the job done on Sunday. NEC have totally fallen apart at completely the wrong stage of the season, and they have been very poor at home for quite some time, meaning it would not be a surprise if the visitors win by a comfortable margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for NEC had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.

Result
NEC	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
35.12% ( 0.6)	25.07% ( 0.16)	39.8% ( -0.77)

Both teams to score 57.31% (

-0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.84% (

-0.66)

46.16% (

0.65)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.54% (

-0.63)

68.45% (

0.62)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.45% (

0.03)

25.55% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.59% (

0.05)

60.41% (

-0.06)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.97% (

-0.67)

23.03% (

0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.16% (

-0.99)

56.84% (

0.98)

Score Analysis

NEC 35.12%

AZ Alkmaar 39.8%

Draw 25.06%

NEC	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.57% Total : 35.12%	1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.06%	1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 4.24% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.18% Total : 39.8%