Eredivisie | Gameweek 27

Apr 23, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ
2 - 1
Heerenveen

Karlsson (44'), Reijnders (87')
Clasie (13')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Sarr (7')
Zaal (84'), Mulder (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Heerenveen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

Last Six:

Last Game: AZ 6-1 Vitesse
Sunday, May 29 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	FC Twente	33	17	65
5	AZ Alkmaar	33	22	61
6	Vitesse	33	-9	50

Heerenveen

Last Six:

Last Game: AZ 2-0 Heerenveen
Sunday, May 22 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
8	NEC	33	-13	38
9	Heerenveen	33	-15	38
10	Go Ahead Eagles	33	-12	36

We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Heerenveen

Heerenveen are the more in-form side coming into this one, but AZ boast the superior team on paper, and we fancy them to get the job done, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 63.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 15.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Heerenveen
63.32%	21.5%	15.19%

Both teams to score 47.11%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.93%

49.07%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.86%

71.15%

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.13%

14.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.79%

43.21%

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.34%

44.66%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.34%

80.66%

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 63.31%

Heerenveen 15.19%

Draw 21.5%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Heerenveen
1-0 @ 12.65% 2-0 @ 12.06% 2-1 @ 9.72% 3-0 @ 7.66% 3-1 @ 6.18% 4-0 @ 3.65% 4-1 @ 2.94% 3-2 @ 2.49% 5-0 @ 1.39% 4-2 @ 1.19% 5-1 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.25% Total : 63.31%	1-1 @ 10.2% 0-0 @ 6.64% 2-2 @ 3.92% Other @ 0.74% Total : 21.5%	0-1 @ 5.35% 1-2 @ 4.11% 0-2 @ 2.16% 1-3 @ 1.11% 2-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.41% Total : 15.19%