Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 26.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
