Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.