Fresh from winning the Supercopa de Ecuador, LDU Quito host Gremio in the last 16 of the Copa Sudamericana on Tuesday, seeking to take one step closer to a second success in the competition.
At La Casa Blanca, the 2009 winners will meet opponents who have struggled desperately to match their continental form during the opening rounds of their domestic campaign - turning to a big-name coach from their past to help right the ship.
Match preview
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One of only six teams to have achieved the CONMEBOL treble - winning all three South American club tournaments - LDU come into the opening leg of their first knockout round tie having previously dropped out of the Copa Libertadores group stage in May.
Since they won the Apertura last year, the Quito-based side have gone on to finish fourth in the Clausura, and currently sit a disappointing seventh in the current Serie A standings, with just one round to go.
The 2008 Club World Cup runners-up did, though, defeat old rivals Barcelona 1-0 last month, to claim a second successive Supercopa de Ecuador and gain a measure of revenge for missing out to the Guayaquil outfit for the title last term.
Though they crashed out of the continent's premier competition in the spring, LDU managed to go out with a bang by downing Chile's Union Calera 5-2 to seal the consolation prize of a spot in the Copa Sudamericana.
Nonetheless, after enduring a six-game winless run, previous manager Pablo Repetto was shown the door at Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria, so Argentine coach Pablo Marini has been brought in to turn La U's fortunes around.
Often criticised for his reactive, predictable style of play, Repetto leaves behind a squad that will still harbour hopes of progressing to the last eight if they can continue their recent run of form against an ailing opposition side.
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After seven league matches without a win, last week Tiago Nunes was relieved of his duties in the Gremio dugout, with Luiz Felipe Scolari subsequently returning to the club for a fourth time.
Having signed on intending to lift the Tricolor out of the Brasileiro relegation zone and contest for Copa Sudamericana glory in the coming months, 'Big Phil' took his new charges into battle against fierce rivals Internacional on Saturday, in an encounter considered perhaps the most hotly contested in the country.
Following a close-fought goalless draw - which remarkably saw both sides have 50% possession and make an identical total of 405 passes - Gremio remain rooted to the foot of the table, with only three points from their first nine domestic fixtures.
A tally of just four league goals to date tells the tale of the opening phase of their campaign, as a back four marshalled by experienced defensive duo Pedro Geromel - a veteran of several Bundesliga campaigns - and Argentina's Walter Kannemann have coped relatively well so far.
In contrast to their travails in Serie A, though, the Porto Alegre-based outfit breezed through Group H to reach this stage of South America's secondary club competition - picking up 15 points from a possible 18 and rattling home 21 goals in the process.
With home advantage to come in next week's second leg, Scolari and company will be keen to take a positive result home from Quito on Tuesday, and a repeat of when these two clubs last met on Ecuadorian soil - a 3-2 victory for Gremio in the 2016 Copa Libertadores - would be more than welcome.
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Team News
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Gremio's misfiring attack could be set to change, as Luiz Felipe Scolari will surely consider bringing in Ricardinho after journeyman striker Diego Souza's barren spell was extended at the weekend: the Tricolor have now failed to find the net in five consecutive games with the former Benfica man leading a three-man forward line.
They are also expected to be without several players for the trip to Ecuador, as Maicon, Elias Manoel and Leo Gomes are expected to remain on the sidelines - but goalkeeper Brenno is back in contention after recovering from COVID-19. However, understudy Gabriel Chapeco started in the draw with Internacional on Saturday, so is expected to keep his place between the posts.
Ex-Bayern Munich winger Douglas Costa - who recently joined on loan from Juventus, but has provided a disappointing level of productivity in the final third - suffered a foot injury at the weekend and is likely to miss out.
Hosts LDU, meanwhile, have their full first-team squad available, including Argentinian wide man Lucas Piovi, who was dismissed in their penultimate Copa Libertadores group game, but is set to feature at some stage on Tuesday having served a suspension.
Forward Billy Arce, who returned to his homeland on loan from Premier League club Brighton & Hove Albion this year, prospered in the continent's top tournament - scoring four goals in the group stages as La U finished third in their section. He is in the final season of his contract, so may have a point to prove to potential suitors in this high-profile clash.
The 23-year-old should start in support of another on-loan forward, Luis Amarilla, who - like Arce - bagged a brace in the team's recent Supercopa de Ecuador semi-final triumph over Delfin.
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Quinteros, Caicedo, Ordonez, Cruz; Zunino, Piovi, Alcivar; Julio, Amarilla, Arce
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Rafinha, Kannemann, Geromel, Cortez; Henrique, Bobsin; Alisson, Ferreira, Pyerre; Souza
We say: LDU Quito 2-0 Gremio
With both clubs under new management, there is some potential for a surprise result - particularly as the visitors will be freed from the mental chains that keep them clamped to the Brasileiro basement.
However, Gremio simply cannot find any rhythm in and around the opposition area this term, so LDU can capitalise at the other end; taking a lead to Porto Alegre for next week's second leg.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
