Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 51.21%. A win for Bolivar had a probability of 26.39% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.72%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Bolivar win was 1-2 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.