Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 49.28%. A win for Deportivo Lara had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Deportivo Lara win was 0-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.