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Copa Libertadores
Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 28, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
2 - 1
Rosario

Fernandez (32', 83')
Ramirez (21'), Mendez (27'), Fernandez (39'), Darias (77'), Aguerre (88'), Quintana (89')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Modica (66')
Ibarra (30'), Modica (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Rosario Central, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 3-1 Progreso
Friday, May 24 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Rosario Central

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Deportivo Riestra 0-2 Rosario
Friday, May 24 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Penarol 2-1 Rosario Central

 While Rosario Central won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier in the competition, they now have to make the trip to Estadio Campeon del Siglo, where Penarol are riding a four-match winning streak in all competitions and have only suffered one defeat in 2024. After the off-field issues that took place in Rosario back in April, another heated contest is to be expected when these two collide on Tuesday, but we feel that the hosts will come away from the match victorious and will progress to the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Rosario Central had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Rosario Central win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Penarol in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Penarol.

Result
PenarolDrawRosario Central
43.78% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 27.63% (0.0019999999999989 0) 28.58% (-0.019000000000002 -0.02)
Both teams to score 46.85% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.51% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)58.49% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.93% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)79.07% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.47% (0.0049999999999955 0)26.53% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.27% (0.0030000000000001 0)61.74% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Rosario Central Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.77% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)36.23% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.99% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)73.01% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 43.78%
    Rosario Central 28.58%
    Draw 27.62%
PenarolDrawRosario Central
1-0 @ 12.75% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.59% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 8.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.8%
3-0 @ 3.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.26%
4-0 @ 1.24% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 43.78%
1-1 @ 12.94%
0-0 @ 9.61% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.36% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 27.62%
0-1 @ 9.76% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 6.57% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-2 @ 4.95% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-3 @ 2.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.68% (-0.002 -0)
2-3 @ 1.48% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 28.58%

How you voted: Penarol vs Rosario

Penarol
75.0%
Draw
21.9%
Rosario Central
3.1%
32
Head to Head
Apr 4, 2024 11pm
Group Stage
Rosario
1-0
Penarol
Quintana (45+1')
Gomez (43'), Martinez (48'), O'Connor (56')

Rodriguez (32'), Aguirre (33'), Darias (40'), Ramirez (47'), Mendez (88')
rhs 2.0
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