Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 2nd Leg

Mar 16, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Cerro Porteno
2 - 1
Fortaleza

(Cerro Porteno win 3-1 on aggregate)

Carrizo (38'), Aquino (62')
Viera (14'), Churin (19'), Cardozo (53'), Baez (58')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Guilherme (90+2')
Marcelo (4'), Martin Lucero (67')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Cerro Porteno and Fortaleza.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerro Porteno

Last Game: Fortaleza 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Thursday, March 9 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Fortaleza

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Fortaleza 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Thursday, March 9 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Porteno would win this match.

Result
Cerro Porteno	Draw	Fortaleza
39.1% ( 1.9)	28.23% ( 0.02)	32.67% ( -1.92)

Both teams to score 46.75% (

-0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.63% (

-0.3)

59.37% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.24% (

-0.23)

79.76% (

0.23)

Cerro Porteno Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.46% (

0.99)

29.53% (

-1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.44% (

1.19)

65.56% (

-1.2)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.35% (

-1.46)

33.65% (

1.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.7% (

-1.62)

70.3% (

1.62)

Score Analysis

Cerro Porteno 39.1%

Fortaleza 32.67%

Draw 28.23%

Cerro Porteno	Draw	Fortaleza
1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.47) 3-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.27) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.56% Total : 39.1%	1-1 @ 13.2% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.23%	0-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.31) 1-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.3) 0-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.42) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.42% Total : 32.67%