Lower.com Field will host a rematch of the 2020 MLS Cup final when the Columbus Crew play host to the Seattle Sounders on Saturday.
The Crew are on the outside of the playoff picture following their 1-0 defeat to the New York Red Bulls on Wednesday, while the Sounders are back in first out west, thanks to a 1-0 win over Dallas.
Match preview
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While it is not unheard of for a defending champion to struggle after winning it all, it is surprising to see the Crew not in a playoff position, having lost their last five matches.
Adding the likes of Bradley Wright-Phillips and Kevin Molino over the off-season, no one could have predicted that they would struggle to score goals like they have, going goalless in nine matches this year.
Caleb Porter's side are struggling to complete their passes and have not gotten into the dangerous attacking spaces, as they play the fifth-fewest passes in the 18-yard box among MLS sides.
Not only have they struggled in the final third, but they give the ball away far too much in dangerous areas, and those errors have come back to bite them in recent weeks.
Their own penalty area has become a shooting gallery for opposing sides on their current slide, as they have conceded 13 goals, with their last three defeats coming against non-playoff teams.
The Crew had many similar struggles a year ago before coming alive, and they need to wake up in a hurry if they are to defend their title, as they are currently three points behind CF Montreal for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
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After weathering a storm of injuries, the Sounders are back where they expect to be, on top of the Western Conference table.
A year ago, they picked the worst possible time to have an off-game, losing to the Crew in the MLS Cup final, and Brian Schmetzer will hope that their four-game winless skid from mid-July to early August is the worst that he will see from his side this year.
As many of their veterans have returned to the field, the Sounders have looked like the dominant team that we have seen capture the Western Conference title in four of the previous five years.
The Sounders only had 35% possession versus Dallas on Wednesday, firing one shot on target, but that was all they needed to earn their third successive victory in all competitions.
This team have gone through a lot of rotation because of all of their injuries, but they have shown that they plenty of quality depth throughout their squad.
This weekend will be another quick turnaround for the Sounders, who will only have three days to rest before taking on the Crew, currently just a point above Sporting Kansas City for first in the conference.
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Team News
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The Crew are still struggling on the injury front, missing Aidan Morris and Perry Kitchen with left-knee injuries, Artur has a right hip problem, Milton Valenzuela is nursing a right thigh injury, Luis Diaz is suffering from a right shoulder problem, Josh Williams has a left ankle issue and Marlon Hairston is out with a left thigh injury.
Goalkeeper Eloy Room has conceded 13 goals in his last four starts, while their top goalscorer Lucas Zelarayan is without a goal in his previous three games.
Porter made a few changes to their starting 11 versus New York from their previous fixture, with Harrison Afful starting in defence instead of Saad Abdul-Salaam, Alexandru Matan replaced Derrick Etienne in midfield, Kevin Molino started instead of Pedro Santos and Bradley Wright-Phillips started alongside Gyasi Zardes.
Raul Ruidiaz scored his league-leading 14th goal of the season for Seattle on Wednesday as he now has four in his last three games in all competitions, while teenagers Danny Leyva and Josh Atencio formed a solid base in the midfield in their victory over the Toros.
Their newcomer Nicolas Benezet has made a solid early impression for the Rave Green, scoring in his debut last weekend, and putting together another good performance in their midweek encounter and Spencer Richey started his second match of the season in goal, picking up his second clean sheet.
Stefan Frei is still out with a left knee sprain/blood clot, Jordan Morris has an ACL injury, Jordy Delem has an ACL tear and Nouhou Tolo remains questionable with a left abductor strain.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Francis, Wormgoor, Jonathan, Afful; Santos, Nagbe, Fraser, Etienne; Zardes, Molino
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Cissoko, Arreaga, O'Neill; Lodeiro, Smith, Paulo, Rowe, Benezet; Chu, Ruidiaz
We say: Columbus Crew 1-3 Seattle Sounders
The Crew cannot seem to find the right formula to turn their season around, and while their opponents are getting healthier, Porter has been forced to deal with a slew of injuries at a very inopportune time.
Seattle are playing more determined than ever lately, and they will be extra motivated to ensure what happened in Columbus in the MLS Cup final last year does not happen again.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 33.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 0-1 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
