Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou City win with a probability of 53.46%. A win for Qingdao had a probability of 23.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Qingdao win was 0-1 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou City would win this match.