Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou R&F win with a probability of 36.55%. A win for Henan Jianye had a probability of 36.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou R&F win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Henan Jianye win was 1-0 (10.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.