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Attendance: 40,396
Chelsea logo
Premier League | Gameweek 22
Jan 11, 2020 at 3pm UK
 
Burnley logo

3-0

Jorginho (27' pen.), Abraham (38'), Hudson-Odoi (49')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Preview: Chelsea vs. Burnley - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole provides team news, predicted lineups and a full preview of Saturday's Premier League match between Chelsea and Burnley.

Chelsea play host to Burnley in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon looking to strengthen their hold of fourth place in the standings.

Meanwhile, Burnley make the trip to Stamford Bridge having suffered three successive defeats, a run which has left them just four points above the relegation zone.


Match preview

Chelsea manager Frank Lampard pictured on November 2, 2019© Reuters

While Chelsea have plenty of work to do when it comes to putting together a better run of results at Stamford Bridge, recording a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup can only help their cause.

Despite the Championship outfit seeing two marginal VAR decisions go against them, they were well beaten by their hosts, who must now find a way to build on the performance this weekend.

Chelsea have suffered home defeats to West Ham United, Bournemouth and Southampton since the end of November, leaving Frank Lampard's side to rely on victories over the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal on away territory to keep them in fourth spot.

However, Lampard is the first to acknowledge that Chelsea can ill afford to continue their poor run of form in front of their own supporters, especially against teams who make the trip to West London out of form.

On the majority of occasions, Chelsea have made mistakes at the back which have contributed to their own downfall, but Lampard remains less than impressed with his team's efforts in the final third.

Chelsea's Callum Hudson-Odoi pictured in September 2019© Reuters

Chelsea have not scored more than two goals in a match since the 4-4 draw with Ajax - a run which stretches 13 matches in all competitions.

While there remains positive conjecture about the performances of their youthful attack, none of them can say with any justification that they are producing the consistency required to move Chelsea closer to the top three.

At a time when there is constant speculation regarding potential incomings and outgoings to strengthen their bid for a Champions League place next season, responsibility right now falls on the shoulders on the players who are being handed extended runs in the team in a bid to regain their form from September and October.

Sean Dyche will feel that Chelsea's home form provides Burnley with a window of opportunity to get their own season back on track after a dismal Christmas and New Year period.

Their three successive defeats have come to Everton, Manchester United and Aston Villa respectively - teams who have struggled to impress for large parts of this season.

Burnley boss Sean Dyche on September 21, 2019© Reuters

The 4-2 success over Peterborough United in the FA Cup may go some way to getting the Clarets back on track, although Dyche will be aware that the stakes have risen as he bids to avoid becoming embroiled in a battle to avoid the drop.

After the visit to England's capital, they go up against Leicester City and Man United before hosting Norwich City in what could turn out to be a pivotal contest at the bottom of the table.

Prevailing just once from their next three outings will be enough to ease any concerns regarding a return to the Championship, but Dyche will also have the long-term development of his team in mind during the second half of the season.

The narrative has been set that Burnley continue to punch above their weight each time that they remain in the Premier League - similar to Bournemouth who have also seen their results drop off in recent weeks.

However, rather than persist with an underdog tag, the onus is on Dyche and his players to prove their worth at a time when the option is there to make significant changes in personnel.

While Dyche will most likely show faith in his current group of players, Burnley have lost nine of their last 13 Premier League fixtures - form which cannot continue if they wish to extend their stay in the top flight.

Chelsea Premier League form: LLWLWD
Chelsea form (all competitions): LWLWDW

Burnley Premier League form: LWWLLL
Burnley form (all competitions): WWLLLW


Team News

Christian Pulisic scores a second for Chelsea against Crystal Palace on November 9, 2019© Reuters

With Callum Hudson-Odoi having impressed against Forest, Lampard may opt to keep Christian Pulisic among the replacements.

Willian and Tammy Abraham should come back into the starting lineup after being rested, while the midfield three is likely to consist of N'Golo Kante, Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic.

Providing that Reece James starts at right-back, Cesar Azpilicueta is expected to get the nod ahead of Emerson Palmieri on the opposite side of the defence.

Dyche has revealed that Ashley Barnes is likely to miss out as he struggles to overcome a groin problem.

With Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Chris Wood both carrying hamstring issues, Jay Rodriguez had been expected to be named in attack.

However, the forward, as well as Phil Bardsley, has been ill since the beginning of the week, potentially leading to starts for Matthew Lowton and Matej Vydra.

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Arrizabalaga; James, Rudiger, Zouma, Azpilicueta; Kante, Jorginho, Kovacic; Willian, Abraham, Hudson-Odoi

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Hendrick, Westwood, Cork, Brady; McNeil, Vydra


Head To Head

Saturday's match represents the 100th competitive meeting between the two clubs, with Burnley currently edging the head-to-head by a 38-37 margin.

Despite the Clarets holding a narrow advantage from a historical perspective, they have prevailed in just one of the last 11 encounters in the Premier League.

However, they are unbeaten in their last two visits to Stamford Bridge, with a 2-2 draw being recorded in this fixture last season.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Chelsea 2-1 Burnley

While Chelsea have struggled in front of their own fans this season, we feel that the success over Forest in the FA Cup can only benefit them. Burnley's work-rate will ensure that this is a hard-fought contest, but we are backing the Blues to record victory by a narrow margin.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 71.95%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for had a probability of 11.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.91%), while for a win it was 1-2 (3.31%).


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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
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5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
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7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
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12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
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19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
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